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Peter Kammerer

The earth has limited area and resources. Irreparable damage has been caused to large swathes through environmental mismanagement and pollution. Almost one in seven of the world's 6.7 billion people do not have clean water; a similar number lack enough to eat. The UN's prediction last week that the population will double in the next 40 years if growth rates are not checked can only prompt searching questions.

UN officials have long warned of the dangers of overpopulation. They have been paid scant heed. Mainland China, with its one-child policy, has been one of the few to listen, although it has done so not out of a sense of concern for dwindling global resources, but to contend with its own water and food challenges. As effective as this has been in keeping numbers down, it is an approach that no upholder of human rights or democratically elected government could dare suggest.

Social scientists are divided about whether population growth is a problem. Economist and director of Columbia University's Earth Institute, Jeffrey Sachs, is adamant that it is. He argued in his best-selling book, Common Wealth, that the world's optimal population was eight billion. Sustainability could not be assured if there were more people, he said - especially as most of the increase was taking place in the poorest countries.

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But there are those who contend that innovation will save the day. Ways will be found to ensure people have enough to eat and drink, no matter how many there may be. The argument is simple: who, 40 years ago, could have envisaged computers in homes, mobile phones, digital cameras or even quality wines in screw-top bottles? No one can accurately predict how technology and society will evolve over the next four decades, but there is one certainty: they will ensure that sustainability dilemmas are resolved.

I'm firmly in Dr Sachs' camp. Humankind can't continue to grow at present rates. The earth is suffering and the strains are showing. We can't count on rising environmental consciousness and possible inventions to pull us from the mire; population growth also has to be arrested.

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Affluence is doing this in the developed world. Education is helping. But a lack of birth control in poor countries, religious beliefs and improving health standards are driving birth rates ever-higher in developing nations. The complexities are such that stemming the tide of humanity will not come easily.

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