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Succession high on plenum agenda

The Communist Party's elite met in a closed-door annual conclave in Beijing yesterday, with key personnel changes that will shed light on who will become the next helmsman high on the agenda.

The four-day gathering of about 370 members and alternative members of the party's 17th Central Committee at the Jingxi Hotel has grabbed much international media attention because of its intriguing timing.

It comes just two weeks ahead of an all-out celebration of the 60th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China.

While policies on pressing issues and a reiteration of cliched pledges to root out corruption are widely expected from the plenum, the biggest question is whether Vice President Xi Jinping will be installed as vice-chairman of the party's Central Military Commission.

The appointment would further cement his status as President Hu Jintao's heir apparent, paving his way to becoming party boss at the 18th National Congress in 2012, when Hu ends his second five-year stint as leader, and as military chief later.

While many people say the Chinese Communist Party, the world's largest political entity, remains a highly secretive, top-down and bureaucratic organisation, there are certain rules it has to follow. The plenum is a case in point.

This is the fourth plenum of the current Central Committee, when the most powerful officials gather to make major policy and personnel decisions.

The party holds its National Congress every five years, electing a new Central Committee, including the general secretary, as its constitution dictates. Between congresses, the Central Committee holds plenary sessions at least once a year to discuss and introduce significant policies.

Although the number of plenums has varied between congresses over the party's 88-year history, political analysts have noted that in the past two decades, seven plenary sessions were held between party congresses.

Each plenum usually has specific themes. For example, the first plenum, which is convened right after the national congress, elects the Politburo and its Standing Committee, the apex of power.

Major decisions about government reshuffles are usually made at the second plenum. They are approved at annual meetings of the rubber-stamp parliament in March.

But it is arguably the fourth plenums of party congresses since the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown that have been defining moments.

Jiang Zemin was anointed party boss at the fourth plenum of the 13th Central Committee in June 1989, just days after the June 4 crackdown, marking the start of his 13-year stint. He replaced Zhao Ziyang , who was sacked as party chief for opposing the crackdown and held under house arrest until he died in 2005.

Hu became vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission in 1999 at the fourth plenum of the 15th Central Committee, paving the way for him to take over from Jiang as party boss at the 16th party congress in 2002 and as president in 2003.

Hu subsequently became the country's top ruler in 2004 at the fourth plenum of the 16th Central Committee, when Jiang relinquished his post as CMC chairman.

If that precedent is followed, analysts say, Xi should get the crucial military post towards the end of this latest plenum. He was elevated to the Politburo Standing Committee in 2007 at the 17th party congress and became vice-president last year.

A cliche-studded communiqu? is usually issued after the plenum closes, rolling out at least some policy decisions. Although it is unlikely to unveil major decisions on succession in detail, the verdict on the mainland's next power succession will become apparent if the game is played according to existing rules.

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