H-share index doubles from March low as rally keeps going
Hong Kong's index of mainland stocks has doubled since its March trough as the economic turnaround across the border has lured investors back to the market.
The H-share index advanced for the third consecutive week after rising yesterday by 356.09 points or 2.7 per cent to 13,316.02. It has taken less than eight months for the benchmark to double its 6,582.23-point low on March 2.
Investors have bought into the rally on speculation that the mainland economy is on the mend. Their expectations were apparently validated this week when Beijing announced strong economic data.
The data showed third-quarter growth of 8.9 per cent from the previous year and industrial production and retail sales for last month at 13-month and eight-month highs, respectively.
'After the figures came out Thursday, [investors] were more excited and went into the market,' said Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities. 'The authorities are trying to make the economy recover at a faster pace, and the stock market will follow suit.'
Yip said the 15,000-point level would be the next major checkpoint for the H-share index if liquidity continued to flow into the stock market.
Main-board turnover topped HK$75.99 billion yesterday and has held above HK$65 billion in six of the past seven trading sessions. Daily turnover averaged HK$60.4 billion last month.
The influx of funds has given a boost to the H-share index and the Hang Seng Index this month, lifting the benchmarks 12.3 per cent and 7.8 per cent, respectively.
The steep run-up has prompted concern that Beijing could start to ease back on its stimulus policies now that the economic turnaround is in place.
'However, the negative impact on the market may remain limited, as the Chinese authorities seem to remain committed to supporting a reasonably strong level of growth,' Sebastien Barbe, a strategist at Calyon, wrote in a report yesterday.
Although equity valuations in Hong Kong have risen above a five-year average, market watchers said many investors would continue to load up on stocks because they missed out on the previous rally and had too much cash on hand.
The ample liquidity levels should guard against a serious correction in financial markets, Manpreet Gill, the Asia strategist at Barclays Wealth, said this week.
'Now more than ever is the time to go out and be fully invested,' Gill said. 'It does not make sense to wait until all economic data is looking positive, because from an investment point of view, that is too late.'
Gill said investors should consider diversifying their investments into commodities and developed market stocks, however, after the substantial run-up in regional equities.
