Camp could claim 4 of 10 new seats
The pan-democrat camp might grab four of 10 seats the government has proposed adding to the legislature in 2012, political scientists said yesterday.
But the additional seats also raised the possibility the bloc's veto power could be at risk. One commentator warned that if the camp fared badly in the election, it might have more difficulty dealing with constitutional reform proposals.
Under the city's Basic Law, political reforms have to be passed by two-thirds of the Legislative Council.
The camp currently has 23 lawmakers in the 60-seat legislature, and it will need at least 24 members in the next Legco election in 2012 to retain its veto. Of the five seats proposed to be added to the geographical constituency, the camp could be expected to win three, according to Ma Ngok of Chinese University and Dr James Sung Lap-kung of City University, citing the bloc's voting record. But both said it was difficult to say how many of the five seats added to the district council functional constituency the camp could win.
'It all depends on the final voting system on how to elect those five Legco seats. The democratic camp would lose them all if each district councillor has six votes,' Ma said. 'Only if the proportional representation voting system is applied may the camp be able to grab one to two seats.'
Sung believed the camp would be capable of gaining one of five additional seats in the district council sector, but winning two would be difficult under proportional representation.
It would not be too hard for the camp to ensure it held one-third of the seats if the parties co-ordinated well before the Legco election, Sung said.
