It has been an interesting week for those who believe in the 'Cleopatra's nose' theory of history - that chance events, as much as tectonic historical forces, cause the great waves that bring about the rise and fall of great powers. The theory gets its name from Mark Antony's infatuation with Cleopatra that caused him to lose at Actium and changed the course of Western civilisation.
Unfortunately for US President Barack Obama, two small incidents this month will make it more difficult for 'Barack' and 'Yukio' (Hatoyama), as the president and prime minister of Japan call each other, to improve relations, especially on key questions of the shape and form of the US defence umbrella that has protected Japan since the war.
In a ludicrously short visit of just 24 hours in Tokyo, Obama launched his considerable charm offensive - which got him into trouble back home.
Meeting Japan's emperor and empress, Obama bowed low, as well as shaking the hand that the emperor offered. His action was accepted in Japan as awkward but gracefully polite. In the US, it set off howls of protest from right-wing Republicans that an American president should bow to no one. Pundit William Kristol said it showed that the US was becoming weak and deferential. To prove their point, critics juxtaposed a picture of former vice-president Dick Cheney greeting the emperor in 2007 - a firm handshake, no bow.
How a president should greet an emperor is a tricky issue of protocol that should not get in the way of real policies. But the reaction of America's loony right shows that they are just as mad about missing the real point as the Loony Left ever were. The answer is to laugh and move on, except that the Republicans are being led by the loonies and determined to damn everything Obama does. The question is whether ultrapoliteness may undermine efforts to update policy.
Shortly before Obama arrived in Japan, a 66-year-old man in Okinawa was killed by a hit-and-run driver from the nearby US base. Since 1952, US troops have been involved in more than 200,000 accidents and crimes, involving more than 1,000 deaths and well-publicised cases of rape of underage girls. The hit-and-run death again raised fierce local opposition to the presence of US troops.
To get back to the facts on the ground, Obama's visit highlighted that the Hatoyama government wants to make its mark and create a new foreign policy that sees Japan less in thrall to the US and more of a player in its Asian home. This will accord - belatedly - with Japan's huge global economic footprint.