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Why you can trust SCMP
Nick Pulford

This is turning into the Premier League season many thought we would never see again and it's not just Liverpool who have reason to fear the rise of Aston Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City.

Chelsea and Manchester United, too, will be taking Villa more seriously now that Martin O'Neill's side have jolted their title challenges with victories against both of the top two, while Arsenal must prove their longer-term ability to cope without Robin van Persie before they can be sure of their usual top-four position, never mind a title bid.

In the wake of Villa's win at Old Trafford, the English press was quick to seize on the 'egalitarianism' and 'democratisation' of this season's Premier League, but it might be too early to claim that Villa, Tottenham and Manchester City - none of whom have yet experienced Champions League football - have sealed the deal in breaking up the big-four monopoly.

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Villa, for instance, have achieved headline-grabbing wins over United, Chelsea and Liverpool, but their record against the bulk of the Premier League does not set them apart as something special. They have won fewer than half of their games against teams outside the top eight and their average of 1.64 points per game in that category is simply not good enough.

By comparison, Chelsea's average is 2.55, United's 2.5 and Arsenal's 2.44. Even Tottenham, who have suffered shock defeats at home by Stoke and Wolves, average two points per game against teams outside the top eight, while Manchester City's average is 1.89 despite their long sequence of draws.

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Interestingly, all of the traditional big four teams are performing better than Villa, Tottenham and City against the lower rump of the Premier League, as Liverpool are averaging 2.2 points per game against teams outside the top eight.

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