Several things happened in the closing days of 2009 that could well point to how China is likely to develop in the coming decade. On Christmas Day, the country's best known dissident, Liu Xiaobo, was sentenced to 11 years in prison for campaigning for political freedoms, many of them already enshrined in the constitution but neglected in practice. Beijing faced down overseas criticism, with the Foreign Ministry warning 'relevant countries and international organisations' not to 'interfere in China's internal affairs'.
Three days later, the Chinese cargo ship De Xin Hai and its crew of 25, held since October last year, were freed by Somali pirates after a ransom of US$4 million in cash was reportedly paid.
The two events are not directly linked. The first shows that China feels it can now safely disregard international outrage over human rights abuses and is likely to continue to act in a high-handed manner.
The second event, however, shows that China is not as strong, militarily, as it would like to be. Beijing announced that the ship and crew had been successfully 'rescued' - with no mention of a ransom having been paid. Asked at a press conference whether it was true that the 'rescue' had taken place after such a payment, a Chinese official merely responded: 'I do not have the specifics you mentioned.'
China has deployed a naval flotilla in the Gulf of Aden off Somalia to protect its shipping from pirates but, like other countries, it has found the task extremely challenging. For one thing, it has no military allies to count on for support and no overseas bases, unlike the US. As a result, its seamen often have to go weeks without calling at a port.
The day after the 'rescue', an interview with Yin Zhuo , a retired rear admiral who is now a senior researcher for the Chinese navy, was published on the Defence Ministry website. Yin called for the setting up overseas of a 'base for resupply and repair'.