Is there a 'dark horse' in the race for the next chief executive? There are two candidates the media frequently refers to - Chief Secretary Henry Tang Ying-yen, and Leung Chun-ying, convenor of the Executive Council. But, in keeping with mainland political tradition, there may well be another whose identity won't be revealed until later. The dark horse would pip the others to the finishing line.
Hong Kong's first chief executive, shipping tycoon Tung Chee-hwa, did not come to the public's notice until 1992 when he was appointed to Exco by the last British governor, Chris Patten. A hot favourite then was Lo Tak-shing, a lawyer and former member of the colonial establishment. Lo achieved notoriety for his visit to Beijing soon after the 1989 crackdown to meet the then premier, Li Peng , regarded as the man who ordered the tanks into Tiananmen Square. Lo cultivated relations with Chinese leaders and saw himself in the running to be the first chief executive.
There were others in the mid-1990s who thought they had a chance too - former chief justice Yang Ti-liang, a former high court judge, Simon Li Fook-sean, and tycoon Peter Woo Kwong-ching. Indeed, Yang and Woo had enough nominations from the Selection Committee to formally enter the race in 1996 even though, by then, Tung clearly had Beijing's blessing. Yet, it was important to have a contested process. Beijing did not want the world to think the match was fixed.
The current chief executive, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, was also the dark horse. Pundits didn't think a knighted civil servant who was not known to have Beijing's trust could be the one. Tsang's rise showed Beijing's pragmatism and willingness to set the past aside when it had determined Tsang could do the job and would be loyal to 'one country'.
There didn't even need to be a 'contest', since it was deemed desirable in 2005 that Tsang, who was then the acting chief executive after Tung's resignation, would be the sole candidate for the by-selection. In 2005, there was debate about whether Tung's remaining second term of office (2002-2007) counted as a term under the Basic Law. The post-1997 constitution imposes a two-term limit on the post of chief executive, thus the answer would affect when Tsang had to step down. Beijing provided a constitutional interpretation of the law that the remaining term was a term, and thus Tsang would have to step down by 2012 at the latest. So, Hong Kong knew in 2005 that there would have to be a race soon enough.
According to many media reports at one time or another, horses in the stable have not only included Tang and Leung, but also Rita Fan Hsu Lai-tai, the former Legislative Council president and now a National People's Congrees Standing Committee member, and possibly Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, the former secretary for security who is now a legislator. There has also been occasional mention of Wong Yan-lung, the secretary for justice appointed in 2005. Today, the media limelight is on Tang and Leung; they are considered the front runners.