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Why you can trust SCMP
Nick Pulford

John Terry has played four English Premier League matches since the scandal about his private life engulfed him, but he has been given time off this weekend as Chelsea prepare to face Cardiff in the fifth round of the FA Cup. Chelsea's captain will be looking forward to a return to Premier League action next weekend and the resumption of the Champions League, and many punters will be doing the same.

The Champions League starts again on Tuesday, but a new format means that four of the first legs in the round of 16 are played in midweek - including the ties involving Manchester United and Arsenal - and the other four the following week, when Chelsea's first-leg visit to Inter Milan is the main attraction.

Making a profit betting on the Champions League is not easy, but the clash of top form lines from across Europe makes the competition one of the most fascinating challenges for punters. The cream tends to rise to the top but, if domestic league form was the most important factor, more champions would win the Champions League. In the past decade, however, only five reigning league champions have lifted the trophy and just three of those were from the most competitive leagues of England, Spain and Italy.

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What that shows is how difficult it is to be at the top domestically and in the Champions League at the same time - a team who can do both, as Barcelona and Manchester United have in the past two years, truly have claims to be regarded as the best in Europe.

The majority of Champions League winners are not so dominant and the best approach for punters is to concentrate on this season's Champions League form, rather than domestic performances. That's what I decided to do several years ago and, by rating the last-16 teams on five form factors, it has proved to be a winning formula.

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In the six seasons since the current format was adopted for the Champions League, nine of the 12 finalists have got a tick for all five form factors and one of the others, 2004 winners Porto, had four. Only Liverpool, with their surprising and ultimately dramatic triumph in 2005, have really torn up the form book.

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