Every year it's the same at the start of the Formula One season. I almost wish I was writing about soccer. The rules there tend not to change. Formula One, being Formula One of course, they've re-invented the wheel yet again over the winter. New teams, new circuits, new rules - and of course an old driver. Despite that, the sport seems in rude health.
Let's start with the rule changes. There is one that is more important than all others, the banning of in-race refuelling. This will have the biggest effect on the nature of racing, with all teams looking to preserve tyres. Strategy and driving style (the smoother the better) will be all-important and could well provide pivotal points in the season.
It's also made it very hard to predict who's going to rip up the tarmac once the lights go out in Bahrain. Pre-season testing may have been very useful for the teams, but for the casual observer, not knowing how much fuel was on board made interpreting the times a nightmare.
Safe to say Ferrari look back to their best and McLaren are unlikely to have the slow start they suffered in 2009. Mercedes, the rebranded Brawn team, aren't going to have the surprise element this time around, but they still have the genius of Brawn and the experience of Michael Schumacher as well as a much bigger budget.
The other team likely to be in the mix are Red Bull. Second to Brawn in last year's constructors' championship they have been making confident noises pre-season. Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are a potent combination and will win races. And watch the radar for Williams. New Cosworth engines aligned with decent design might see them on the podium from time to time.
This year we have four world champions, all racing in competitive cars. Fernando Alonso finally has the machinery at Ferrari to match his talent. Jenson Button has been bold in choosing to drive alongside Lewis Hamilton at McLaren, but it increasingly seems like the right choice. Two British world champions in a British car could be a launch pad for a fairy-tale season. But Hamilton has to get on with Button or it will turn into a nightmare.