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Why you can trust SCMP
Nick Pulford

This week one English newspaper seemed convinced of an imminent changing of the guard in Europe, using some questionable statistics to argue that there was a looming threat to the Premier League's hegemony from the spending power of Real Madrid and the managerial acumen of Jose Mourinho.

The second part of that theory will be tested next week, when Mourinho's Inter take a 2-1 lead to Chelsea for the second leg of their last-16 tie in the Champions League, but the first part was blown out of the water as Real Madrid were dumped out at the first knockout stage for the sixth year in a row.

While the GBP240 million (HK$2.8 billion) team were on their way out, the Premier League hierarchy looked as secure as ever, with Arsenal blasting five past Porto and the rampant Wayne Rooney leading Manchester United to a 7-2 aggregate win over the once-mighty AC Milan. So much for a fading force.

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Real were one of the chief threats to the English clubs, so their removal is a blow for those hoping to see the other major European leagues make a more concerted challenge to the Premier League. The inescapable conclusion from this week's results is that at the elite level the Premier League is as strong as ever and, if Chelsea turn around their tie against Inter, the Champions League may well come down to a battle between Barcelona and the English clubs, as it has in essence for much of the past five years.

On another level, however, there is some evidence that the Premier League elite are regressing. United lead the table, having played 29 games, and their 63-point haul is the joint-lowest for the leaders at this stage since the turn of the millennium. Even if Chelsea win their game in hand to move to 64 points after 29 games, that will still be the lowest of recent years, after Arsenal's Invincibles of 2003-04 reached 73 points after 29 games, followed in subsequent seasons by Chelsea (74 and 75 in their two title-winning seasons) and United, whose hat-trick of title wins were achieved off totals of 72, 67 and 65 at this stage.

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It is interesting that the numbers have been decreasing back into the lower 60s since those incredible mid-70s figures and that could be read as a sign that the elite are not as strong as before, if it were not for the continued high level of achievement in the Champions League.

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