'Referendum' farce risks turning into a tragedy

The comedy that is the 'de facto referendum' being planned for May 16 now has the potential to turn into a tragedy. Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen calls it a 'drama'; pro-government politician Tam Yiu-chung says it's a 'farce'.

But it is not funny any more.

Everyone knew from the beginning that this was not going to be a genuine referendum. Left to their own devices, one or two of the five radical pan-democrats who resigned from the legislature would probably not be re-elected.

This means the pan-democrats would have lost seats and, possibly, their built-in veto power, since major votes require a two-thirds majority of lawmakers. That is to say, it was a lose-lose proposition for the pan-democrats. And that means it was a win-win proposition for Beijing and the pro-establishment camp here in Hong Kong.

However, Beijing appears determined to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. It raised interest in a lacklustre election by accusing those behind the by-election ploy of mounting a 'blatant challenge to the Basic Law' and to Beijing's authority. This, in itself, ensured a much higher turnout than otherwise, and strengthened the claim by the Civic Party and League of Social Democrats of a genuine, de facto referendum.

But then Beijing persuaded its supporters not to compete in the by-elections. That virtually ensured the re-election of all five of those who resigned, enabling them to claim that they had won in a 'walkover' and to interpret that result in any way they wanted.

Now the central government seems to be taking it one level higher. Li Fei , deputy director of the Legal Affairs Commission of the National People's Congress, said the by-election process may be illegal. 'Neither China's constitution nor the Basic Law' provide for a de facto referendum, he said, and therefore holding the election 'is fundamentally in breach of the Basic Law. It goes against Hong Kong's current legal status'.