Stop the point-scoring on reform and move on
The striking of any deal, whether in business or politics, depends on the willingness of those involved to trust one another. This is how relationships are formed and mutually beneficial agreements reached.
Forging an agreement on democratic reform for Hong Kong is no exception. Unless the democrats and the central government are prepared to trust each other, it is unlikely there will be progress towards universal suffrage. That is in no one's interests.
Sadly, their relationship has long been characterised by suspicion, distrust and, at times, open hostility. But the deadlock on political reform for 2012- and the need to break it - also offers an opportunity. It is often said that politics makes strange bedfellows. So does necessity. With trust on both sides, there is a chance not only to make progress towards universal suffrage, but to develop a new, more constructive relationship between the democrats and Beijing.
The prospect of such an outcome may seem remote at this time, given that all democrat lawmakers say they will reject the Hong Kong government's modest reform proposals. But there is a glimmer of hope. Signs have emerged this week that Beijing may be willing to make a statement on the way forward for reform beyond 2012 if the reform proposals are passed. Moderate democrats have slightly softened their demands. The two sides may be edging closer.
Whether this will lead to an agreement is still very much in doubt, though. The democrats want reassurances that the universal suffrage we have been promised in 2017 and 2020 will be genuinely democratic. Beijing wants the reform package passed. It should not be so difficult for each side to accommodate the other. But one of them has to make the first move.
Some democrats may need to take a leap of faith and vote for the reform package, trusting that Beijing will reward them with the reassurance we all want. If the reform package is passed, Beijing would then be expected to provide some direction on the way forward. It could, for example, give a guarantee that the proportion of geographically elected seats in Legco will be increased after 2012. It could signal the end of the controversial split-voting system for the legislature. Or, if it wishes to keep functional constituencies, it may pave the way for them to be reformed to meet the principle of universal and equal suffrage. Such steps would be well received in Hong Kong and take much of the heat out of the debate.
One problem is that any democrat voting for the reform package, in the hope that Beijing will then make a goodwill gesture in return, will be taking a big political risk. Some, perhaps all, will not have the stomach for it. The central government may therefore need to give some assurances prior to the vote, trusting that this will be sufficient to see it through. Then, if the package is passed, Beijing must keep any promises it made. It has many reasons to do so.
The central government recognises that the reform issue has long been a source of conflict and that it needs resolving. It has acknowledged that achieving universal suffrage is necessary to meet people's expectations and to implement the one country, two systems concept. Now it has a chance to show it means what it says.
Setting the timetable was a significant step. We now need to move forward. This could be achieved by Legco passing some, possibly improved, version of the reform package and Beijing providing meaningful assurances on the way ahead. Political point-scoring can be a great spectator sport. But it is a time for all concerned to move beyond that and build what should be a landmark agreement.
