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Public's verdict awaited on radical tactics

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Why you can trust SCMP
Gary Cheung

For the Civic Party and the League of Social Democrats, which have spearheaded moves to force Sunday's Legislative Council by-elections, seen by some as a de facto referendum on the pace and scope of democratisation, make-or-break time has come.

The two parties will come under huge pressure to review their radical approach if only about 20 per cent of 3.37 million registered voters turn out on Sunday to cast their ballots.

With just a week to go before voting, the campaign does not appear to have stirred the same levels of interest as previous Legco elections, and academics predict turnout will barely scrape 25 per cent.

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Some 1.52 million people, or 45.2 per cent, of the 3.37 million registered voters cast their ballots in the 2008 Legco poll.

But turnout in previous by-elections may be an indicator.

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A by-election on Hong Kong Island in 2000 saw a turnout of 33.2 per cent, while turnout for the 2007 by-election in the same constituency - involving a battle between former chief secretary Anson Chan Fang On-sang and former security chief Regina Ip Lau Suk-yee, was 52.06 per cent.

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