What will happen after the vote on political reform next Wednesday? If the Legislative Council passes the government's proposal with the required two-thirds majority, then Beijing and the Hong Kong administration will say constitutional development can proceed according to plan. If the proposal fails, then Beijing will probably say that reforms will be frozen for the time being, and the democrats will repeat that there was not enough in the package for them to support it.
Members of the pro-democracy camp have adopted different strategies in recent months. The Democratic Party did not join the Civic Party and League of Social Democrats in the May 16 by-elections, which were triggered by the calculated resignation of five legislators and promoted as a referendum on universal suffrage. Since the pro-government camp did not field any candidates, the by-elections became a one-sided affair and the five legislators who resigned were able to win by large margins. While the turnout rate was only 17 per cent, most of the 579,000 votes went to the five candidates. Some of the other candidates were students who also ran on pro-democracy platforms.
It is fair to say that most of those who exercised their right to vote support a faster pace of reform than the one on offer by the government. But what the Hong Kong administration could not do is claim that those who didn't vote supported the government's proposal, since Beijing's strategy of keeping the pro-government camp from fielding candidates in effect created an uncontested election. The pro-government camp could throw barbs at the pan-democrats from the sidelines but that's not the same as battling it out in a campaign and winning votes.
Neither side could truly claim to have won. No ground was lost or gained by the democrats; it was a draw.
Having proposed a political package to the people of Hong Kong, the administration and Beijing are duty-bound to do what they can to get it passed in Legco. It is clear that Beijing, by engaging in direct talks with the Democrats after the by-elections, sees that it can no longer leave the lobbying to Hong Kong officials. It is remarkable how the Hong Kong administration has been sidelined.
This must be sobering for Chief Executive Donald Tsang Yam-kuen. Having championed reform proposals twice that are in effect Beijing's package, in 2005 and now, he and his officials could not stand on the side of the Hong Kong people and be seen to be fighting with and for them. They are seen as little more than Beijing's messengers. The occasion of Beijing officials speaking directly and openly with the Democratic Party on May 24, to great media fanfare and with local officials nowhere to be seen, contradicts the principle of 'Hong Kong people ruling Hong Kong'.