The Trade Development Council has upgraded its forecast for the city's export growth to 12 per cent this year despite mounting labour costs and the on-going uncertainty in European markets.
The estimate, which was revised from an earlier 5 per cent growth, underlined robust demand for electronics products and a faster-than- expected recovery in intra-Asian trade, TDC chief economist Edward Leung Hoi-kwok said yesterday.
The economic outlook in the United States and the European Union, Hong Kong's top two export markets, remained uncertain on the back of a high unemployment rate and sluggish property market in the US; the sovereign debt problem in the EU and a weakened euro, he said.
'We took into consideration the EU and labour cost problems in the latest forecast,' Leung said. 'However, one never knows whether the situation will worsen or not.' Hong Kong's exports tumbled 12.6 per cent last year, the first decline since 2001. The TDC's latest forecast, if it eventuates, will be the best year since 2004 when it grew at 15.9 per cent.
Hong Kong exporters operating in the Pearl River Delta have recently been hit with a sharp rise in wages due to labour shortages, iPhone maker Foxconn's decision to boost workers' pay after a string of suicides, and a 20 per cent rise in the minimum pay in Guangdong.
A TDC quarterly survey of 500 Hong Kong exporters conducted a month ago showed a large number of companies remain troubled by insufficient workers and higher wages.