Speculation is going into overdrive over who will form the elite of the Communist Party in the next two years, largely provoked by a party plenum due to take place in Beijing next month. Vice-president Xi Jinping is likely to be anointed a deputy chairman of the Central Military Commission. If that happens, he is almost certain to replace Hu Jintao as party secretary in 2012.
All these machinations only underline the fact that power in contemporary China is a curious thing. In the old days, largely when Mao Zedong was in charge, it was pretty clear where the final say lay. US president Richard Nixon was, apparently, most impressed by Mao's ability to simply wipe out whole areas of the country at the slightest move of his hand, when they met in 1972. Others who saw him, even in his weakened 80s, were struck by the raw power that emanated from him. A similar kind of energy came from Deng Xiaoping , though he lacked the chairman's demonic manipulativeness and cruelty.
These days, power in China is less straightforward. Bo Xilai obviously had the power to clamp down on some powerful groups in Chongqing , the huge city where he is currently party boss. But his clear statement of his own ability to order around security services, officials and groups in society has made him a controversial figure. In other provinces, party secretaries must be much more circumspect. They are reminded from the day they arrive that they are sitting amidst a network of vested interests, local elites and cliques which have been there long before they came, and will exist long after they have gone.
If the Central Organisation Department in Beijing were to issue a handbook to those who are sent from one place to another to be provincial party bosses, one wonders what advice it might give. It is recognised that, in order to reach the summit of decision-making in the People's Republic, one has to spend some time in the provinces. Hu's long and winding path to Beijing and the top slot in the Standing Committee of the Politburo went via Guizhou , Tibet and Gansu , three of the poorest provinces in the country.
The likely future premier or head of the National People's Congress (and therefore de facto No2 in the hierarchy), Vice-Premier Li Keqiang , had the pleasure of ruling in Henan province during a particularly nasty of episodes of 'Aids villages' - rural areas angered by official indifference to widespread Aids outbreaks. Provincial leadership in modern China truly tests the mettle of even the sturdiest soul.
Imagine that you are an up-and-coming official who has served in a province as deputy party secretary for a few years, and it is getting near another of the five-year congresses where the key positions are decided at the centre. You get a call from the Organisation Department in Beijing, which is in charge of all personnel decisions. A voice at the other end of the line tells you to go to Beijing for a 'chat'.
Once there, you're told that you are about to be sent as the No1 to a new province. Your new job starts on Monday; you have three days to pack.