Growth in Hong Kong exports is likely to slow for the first time in six quarters as manufacturers worry about the adverse impact of a stronger yuan, escalating trade frictions and wage inflation.
This is the latest finding of a Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC) quarterly poll of 500 manufacturers, with its export index dipping to 56.2 in the third quarter of this year from 59.1 in the second quarter.
A reading above 50 means expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
Council chief economist Edward Leung Hoi-kwok said manufacturers of electronics, toys and clothing were less confident about the third-quarter outlook and their confidence in hiring was weakened because of labour shortages across the border.
Leung said producers broadly felt prospects for US consumer demand and Japanese economic growth were less promising. However, they were relatively positive about the European Union market despite the continuing debt crisis, he said.
'Most of the correspondents feel cautious about the export outlook, but not pessimistic,' he said. 'The general feeling on the final quarter of this year is OK, but it depends on various key factors.'