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Wanted: 70,600 pilots for mainland airlines

Keith Wallis

The mainland and the rest of the Asia-Pacific face a huge pilot shortfall ahead and innovative training methods need to be found to meet regional air traffic growth.

This assessment comes as China is forecast to need 70,600 pilots between now and 2029 - nearly three times the number of commercial airline pilots now flying.

Sherry Carbary, vice-president of flight services for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said the Asian region had 'not had the infrastructure' to train pilots.

'New ways need to be found for training,' she said.

Typically in Europe, North America and Australia young pilots obtain a private pilot's licence before seeking airline sponsorship to train as commercial pilots. Their efforts are supported by a network of private clubs that help encourage aviation.

In Asia, airspace and runway restrictions coupled with smaller interest in aviation has meant most commercial pilots, especially in China, are former military aircrew.

Carbary said training sufficient pilots over the next 20 years would be a challenge but also a 'wonderful opportunity' for flight training companies such as Boeing. She said the mainland would need 70,600 pilots between now and 2029 based on the growth in aircraft deliveries.

The General Administration of Civil Aviation of China (CAAC) said 20,535 airline pilots are currently flying in the country, up from 11,000 in 2006 and 13,000 in 2008.

Carbary said that Southeast Asia would need 42,200 pilots over the next 20 years, up from around 15,000 now, while northeast Asia would need 21,000 pilots.

The number of aircraft engineers and technicians would also have to climb with China needing 96,400 between now and 2029, up about three times the current level, while Southeast Asia would require 47,700, up from around 12,000 now.

Carbary was speaking after the US aircraft maker unveiled its Boeing 787 simulator suite in Singapore that includes two full flight simulators to be used to train pilots from airlines that have ordered the aircraft. A further six 787 simulators have been installed around the world including one in Shanghai and two in Tokyo.

The Shanghai machine is likely to be used to train pilots from China Eastern Airlines Corp, Shanghai Airlines and Air China.

Carbary said Chinese airlines tend to buy their own simulators to train pilots rather than use companies such as Boeing. She said that generally it would be more cost-effective for an airline to buy its own simulator - each 787 simulator costs US$15 million to US$20 million - when an airline had more than 20 of the same type of aircraft like the 787.

The aircrew forecasts were based on the projected increase in the number of airliners needed over the next 20 years. Boeing forecast that the commercial aircraft fleet in the Asia-Pacific region would grow from 4,100 to 12,200 by 2029.

The aircraft manufacturer gave no breakdown by country, but said the biggest increase would be in single-aisle aircraft such as the Boeing 737 or Airbus A320 where the fleet would grow from around 2,560 to 8,130 aircraft over the next 20 years.

In its commercial market outlook published three months ago, Boeing said: 'Half of the world's new traffic added during the next 20 years will be to, from, or within the Asia-Pacific region.

'Total traffic for the region will grow 6.8 per cent per year during the period. Driven by economic development and the increasing accessibility of air transport services, traffic within the region will grow faster than traffic to and from other regions. Shorter-haul flying, including domestic travel and international travel within the region, will grow 7.1 per cent per year.'

Boeing forecast that for China alone, the number of passengers travelling between the mainland and Europe would climb by an average of 6 per cent a year over the next 20 years, with 5.7 per cent annual passenger growth between China and North America.

Concerns about a potential shortage of commercial pilots in China were raised about five years ago when the number of aircraft deliveries started to outpace the availability of pilots. Since then Giovanni Bisignani, director general and chief executive of the International Air Transport Association, said demand for pilots was 'double to triple' that of the country's pilot training capacity.

Chinese airlines partially solved the problem by recruiting pilots from overseas. Shenzhen Airlines, for example, recruited pilots from North America. But China's airline industry has been wracked by a series of scandals that have emerged over the past few weeks involving flight crew falsifying their flight experience or credentials.

This followed the crash of a Henan Airlines Embraer regional jet at Yichun in Heilongjiang province on August 24 that killed 42 and injured 52 passengers and crew members.

Following the accident, the CAAC said it had found more than 200 pilots faked their credentials over the previous two years. Up to 103 worked for Shenzhen Airlines. Pilots who falsified their documents or experience were also found at Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines, CAAC director Li Jiaxiang said.

Taking flight

Boeing, which unveiled its 787 simulator suite in Singapore, says each 787 simulator costs US$15 million to: $20m

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