Every year, about this time, China's leaders nervously await the announcement from Oslo of the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Last year, Chinese officials were apprehensive that the award might go to a Chinese political activist and were relieved when it went to US President Barack Obama.
In 2008, when there were reports that the Nobel committee was considering Hu Jia, an activist serving a prison term, China lobbied the committee heavily. The foreign ministry spokesman warned that the peace prize should be awarded to the 'right person' - that is, not a Chinese dissident. In the end, it went to former Finnish president Martti Ahtisaari for his efforts to resolve international conflicts.
This year's announcement is scheduled to be made on Friday, and again China is warning the committee not to make the wrong choice. This year, a record 237 people have been nominated but China is interested in only one: Liu Xiaobo .
Liu, a literary critic, writer and political activist, was sentenced to 11 years in prison in 2008 for 'inciting subversion against the state'. He was nominated by former Czech president Vaclav Havel who, together with a group of like-minded individuals, had in 1977 signed a manifesto called Charter 77, which called on Czechoslovakia's communist party to respect human rights. Havel was elected president after the fall of communism in Eastern Europe.
In 2008, Liu and several hundred intellectuals in China issued their own manifesto, which they called Charter 08, calling for political reform and an end to one-party rule.
If Liu were to win the prize, it would be a slap in the face for the Chinese Communist Party, which has engaged in gross repression to stay in power. Liu would be a worthy winner of the prize this year, just as Hu Jia would have been a distinguished recipient in 2008.