When evaluating the impact of Friday's award of the Nobel Peace Prize to Liu Xiaobo, there are at least six audiences to consider, in addition to the laureate himself: China's Communist Party leaders, who stifle dissent to maintain their power; legal elites caught between party policies and rule of law requirements; a congeries of dissidents and activists for whom Liu has now become the foremost symbol; the far larger and more diverse community of intellectuals struggling to reconcile China's traditions, 'Westernisation', nationalism and universal values; the broad masses who had never before heard of Liu or the Charter 08 democracy manifesto that he helped draft and that was ultimately signed by roughly 10,000 people; and the outside world that has once again been stimulated to focus on China's political system.
Although party leaders have imposed an increasingly repressive regime upon the country during the past three years since the 17th party congress, they cannot remain insensitive to munitions-maker Alfred Nobel's latest bombshell.
Their immediate reaction was abysmal. The leadership remained silent but the Foreign Ministry declared the Nobel committee's decision a 'desecration' of the donor's intent, and the police suppressed all signs of domestic celebration. After a brief meeting with her imprisoned husband, Liu's wife was placed under de facto house arrest, and any overt supporters were detained, beaten or threatened. Even Premier Wen Jiabao , who for weeks has stirred speculation by hinting that he favours universal values and political reform, kept silent when asked for his view of the award.
Yet Politburo members are too intelligent to think that their silence plus suppression can defuse the current challenge. That tactic worked well in riding out the storms created by the Dalai Lama's 1989 peace prize and by less famous but important awards such as the European Parliament's Sakharov Prize for fellow dissident Hu Jia and the Philippines' Magsaysay award for blind 'barefoot lawyer' Chen Guangcheng. The present situation, however, is potentially incendiary.
Of course, its impact will be veiled in many respects. It is unlikely to gain Liu immediate relief. After all, Hu remains behind bars, and Chen, despite the end of his prison term, suffers enforced isolation at home. But Liu's Nobel may ignite concerns that even influence the jockeying for seats on the new Politburo Standing Committee to be installed in 2012.
Many restless party cadres will want some leaders who can positively respond to domestic and international human rights pressures.
Certainly many among China's burgeoning legal elites would welcome such a change. Hundreds of thousands of judges, prosecutors, lawyers, administrative officials and law professors - most of them party members - have been struggling with the implications for their daily work of the reactionary party line on law emanating from the 17th party congress, and the appointments of politically reliable but professionally unqualified high legal officials.