The annual plenum of the Communist Party Central Committee beginning today will discuss and approve a draft of China's 12th Five-year Plan. This hardly conveys the full significance of the gathering. The plan will set the future course of an economy that has replaced Japan's as the world's second biggest. It could, therefore, have far-reaching implications for the rest of the world, as well as for a country that has reached the crossroads of development at an unprecedented but also unsustainable pace. There is growing consensus that the policy of faster economic growth at any cost has reached its use-by date, amid discontent over growing income and social inequalities and environmental degradation. It is reflected in Premier Wen Jiabao's statement shortly before the plenum that China should focus on structural problems in the economy and stimulate domestic demand to achieve stable growth. There has also been widespread official comment about the need to slow the economy to pave the way for reforms that would make growth more sustainable and the benefits more inclusive.
To say that this is easier said than done is an understatement. A trading juggernaut that has become the world's workshop and its biggest exporter cannot simply change course by resetting a few economic levers and switches. Restructuring has to be undertaken carefully and patiently to avoid dislocation and the risk of social instability. It is hard to see how it can be carried through effectively and smoothly without political reforms.
The plenum may reveal whether other top leaders share the sense of urgency about such reforms expressed repeatedly recently by Wen. Meanwhile, following the award of the Nobel Peace Prize to jailed pro-democracy dissident Liu Xiaobo , the pressure for change has grown. An open letter from former political officials and media professionals called for press freedom, and several national and provincial newspapers have joined the push for reform. This is an unprecedented chain of events. But the question of whether the Communist Party should relax its control over people's lives remains highly sensitive. If proof were needed, it is to be found in the censorship that prevented mainlanders sharing Wen's thoughts.
An important matter that did not appear on the official agenda is the expected confirmation of the promotion of Vice-President Xi Jinping to vice-chairman of the party's Central Military Commission, confirming him as the heir-apparent to President Hu Jintao in two years. He and other fifth-generation leaders will be responsible for implementing the 12th Five-year Plan and any meaningful changes.
Despite the momentous implications of these deliberations, they will, as usual, take place largely behind closed doors, hardly an ideal state of affairs for a country the size and standing of modern China.
It would be a refreshing development if, at least, the full agenda were released, and leading members of the standing committee took questions afterwards on the debate, strategic thinking and vision that shaped their collective decisions on the way forward for a fifth of the world's population. If any consensus is building around Wen's views, it is time for a clear signal of the intention to move China peacefully towards the kind of society he appears to be advocating.