Some might think it a little early to be drawing firm conclusions with limited evidence, but I feel we can now legitimately ask: is the era of two-term chief executives behind us? And, if so, what are the implications for the governance of Hong Kong and, more immediately, the 2012 election?
Our first chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, successfully addressed the key issue of his first term, which was to show Hong Kong and the world that Deng Xiaoping's extraordinary idea of 'one country, two systems' could work. He did the job and, if he had stepped down in 2002, the community would probably now look on him as a favourite uncle. But, instead, he lingered past his sell-by date into an era when the issues were political and social, not constitutional. In this environment, he was hopelessly out of his depth and had to go barely halfway through his second term.
The current chief executive, Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, began his term on a wave of genuine affection: the local boy, from a humble background, who made good. And he has, despite an early stumble, sketched some sort of road map and timetable for dealing with political reform. But despite having a further two years to go in his second term, it is clear that his administration has run out of ideas and momentum. The people can see what is happening, and credibility is dribbling away.
Against this background, we can start to glimpse the kind of person we need for our next chief executive, to be elected in 2012. First, he must show clearly that he - or she - understands the issues that concern Hong Kong people and has ideas for how to address them. Second, he must demonstrate a willingness to confront vested interests if they stand in the way of a harmonious society. Third, he must seize bulls - and their sacred cow partners - firmly by the horns and deal with them before they create havoc in the China shop. Finally, he must be a skilled communicator, able to inspire people of all ages.
To do these things, he will have to put aside all considerations of a second term. Hong Kong is crying out for long-term vision and an action agenda to deliver it, even at the expense of short-term loss of popularity. Slick PR will not do.
By common consent, the two front runners to be the next chief executive are Henry Tang Ying-yen and Leung Chun-ying. Both have their merits and weaknesses. Tang can claim a long track record in administration, having held two of the top three posts. He has experience, certainly, but his greatest strength may prove paradoxically to also be his biggest weakness. Too close an association with the two previous chief executives may be his Achilles' heel.