The world economic order is changing fast. In 2007, China overtook Germany to become the third largest economy. Three months ago it surpassed Japan and became number two, and this month the Conference Board, a respected non-profit organisation in the United States, predicted that, on a purchasing power parity basis, China may overtake the US in 2012.
As China and others have risen, the US perforce has declined. What are the implications of the emerging world order? Will any other country be willing to play the role that the United States has assumed for the past 65 years?
Charles Freeman, a former US ambassador who was considered by the Obama administration to be chairman of the National Intelligence Council, gave a thoughtful talk about these issues recently at the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre.
He cited some stark statistics to indicate that Washington can no longer play its wonted role. 'The US federal government's revenues from all sources will total US$2.2 trillion this year,' he said. 'Transfer payments to individuals for unemployment, pensions, health care, and other entitlements of a decent and civilised society will total US$2.4 trillion.'
That is to say, America must borrow US$200 billion before it even begins to pay for basic government operations.
For China, it means that the peaceful world order in which it grew so rapidly over the past three decades may be in jeopardy. 'In the absence of rules, fortune favours the fierce,' Freeman said. 'It is not out of the realm of possibility that the world may be in the process of reverting to levels of strife that have not been seen since the Pax Americana was instituted 65 years ago.'