Form and class are the two bedrocks of football betting, and it is no different in the FA Cup despite the competition's reputation for fairy tales and upsets. Chelsea, the cup winners in the past two years, have the class, but form has deserted them and at this stage they look poor favourites to complete the hat-trick.
The good news for Chelsea, who have won only one of their last eight matches in all competitions, is that they have a third-round home draw against a lower-league team in poor form. Ipswich, sixth from bottom in the Championship, have won just two of their last 10, losing seven.
The most worrying aspect for Chelsea is that Ipswich have shown good cup form this season, advancing to a Carling Cup semi-final clash with Arsenal next week.
The reason Chelsea are 4.00 favourites for the FA Cup is that Manchester United, who head the betting for the Premier League, have a tougher third-round tie at home, to Liverpool. But United, having won 3-2 in their home league game against Liverpool in September, should ram home their superiority.
Liverpool are sixth favourites at 17.00, which owes more to reputation than to form or the uneven class of their squad.
If United join Chelsea in the fourth round and both have an equal measure of good fortune in the draw, Alex Ferguson's team will be favourites for the cup, which is worth bearing in mind this weekend when betting on the outright victors. Chelsea are poor value unless United or Arsenal, 5.50 joint-second favourites, are knocked out.