Many people have talked about the rise of Asia. This is especially so now, post financial crisis, when prospects for the United States and Europe seem quite weak for the short to medium term.
But the term 'rise' is used by some to suggest something natural and irresistible. When we extrapolate growth graphs into the future this way, it seems smooth, even if the incline is steep.
However, there are reasons to forecast bumps and sharp edges to that growth. There are also possible disjunctures and problems that, unless surmounted, can throw Asian growth off track. This is true not only in business and economics, but also in social and political systems. Given this, rather than a smooth rise, Asia must expect transformation and indeed many revolutions from what we see currently.
The first necessary Asian revolution will be for nations to move from truce and co-existence to peace and deeper co-operation.
In the decade from the Asian financial crisis to the global financial crisis, from 1998 to 2008, a regional production system was created. Intra-Asian competition is strong, especially at the company level, but for nations and their governments, interdependence is now felt more strongly.
Yet this economic interdependence among Asians papers over many differences. Tensions between China and Japan, and China and India exist over past, present and future issues; from islets in the sea to distant mountain tops, from military build-up to accusations of unfairly subsidised trade. There are similar issues in relations between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as was seen last year when disputed claims in the South China Sea resurfaced.