Think tanks, pundits and media on both sides of the Pacific have worked themselves into a lather about the state visit to the US by President Hu Jintao. Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi added to the 'buzz' by telling the Council on Foreign Relations in New York that the summit is a 'historic opportunity' during which Hu and Barack Obama 'will map out a blueprint together for China-US co-operation for the new era'.
American officials, having been disappointed by President Obama's visit to China in November 2009 and the subsequent failure to realise expectations raised by that summit's joint statement, have more cautiously characterised this meeting as a 'critical juncture'. In a speech last week that was far more comprehensive and specific than Yang's, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, chastened by a year of Sino-American tensions following Obama's visit, no longer reflected the naive optimism and exaggerated concern for China's sensitivities that marked Obama's initial China policy. Clinton's emphasis is now on deeds, not words, and the ability of both parties to 'deliver positive results' and 'more consistently translate positive words into effective co-operation'. She pointedly noted that American policy, in attempting to realise the oft-recited bilateral mantra calling for 'a positive, co-operative and comprehensive relationship', now 'is grounded in reality, focused on results, and true to our principles and interests'.
How is this new US approach likely to be received by a China that has been scrambling to improve prospects for Hu's visit by regaining the goodwill that marked Obama's earliest months in office? The acid test will be human rights, the one area of contention where China's leaders have shown no willingness to yield to American pressure. Indeed, Hu's regime has become increasingly repressive as it strives to impose 'stability' and 'harmony' on a rapidly modernising but increasingly fractious populace whose oft-forgotten 'have nots' increasingly demand social, economic, religious and legal justice.
In view of the emphasis on human rights in Clinton's speech and Obama's publicised meeting with American human rights proponents on the same day, will China respond with more than renewal of the largely symbolic bilateral human rights dialogue? The potentially more productive 'experts' dialogue' promised in 2009 has not materialised, nor has China granted frequent US requests for the release of prominent victims of human rights outrages, as it formerly did.
White House aides are planning for the media to have an opportunity to question the two presidents, an opportunity denied during Obama's China trip. Will journalists rise to the occasion and go beyond China's appalling treatment of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo to ask about the many lesser-known barbarities routinely inflicted by its government?
Clinton mentioned two leading 'rights advocates' who have been victimised. Gao Zhisheng , China's most famous public interest lawyer who tried to defend the Falun Gong against vicious suppression, has long been 'disappeared' after obscene tortures failed to break him. Journalists might ask: 'Is Gao alive, Mr President?' And what about Chen Guangcheng , the blind, self-taught lawyer who served over four years in prison on trumped-up charges for combating illegal discrimination and police brutality? He is now nominally 'free' but unlawfully silenced by an army of rural officials and thugs that has isolated him from all contacts, including necessary medical treatment.
Good follow-up questions might be: 'Mr President, why do you authorise such cruelty against these and many other admirable people who attempt to use your country's legal system to vindicate rights enshrined in your constitution and statutes? Why do your police, prosecutors and judges deny them the protections of Chinese law?'