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Why you can trust SCMP
Nick Pulford

The Manchester derby has always been a big deal in terms of city pride but now, after a gap of almost 40 years, it's a crunch match in the English Premier League title race, too.

United versus City in tonight's early kick-off pitches first against third and only five points separate the bitter rivals after United's surprise defeat at Wolves last weekend. City, meanwhile, made no mistake with a comfortable 3-0 home win over West Brom that set up the derby clash perfectly.

The good news for United last weekend was they could afford the slip-up without coming under great pressure. Although City won, second-placed Arsenal reduced the gap on United by only a point after allowing Newcastle to come back for that remarkable 4-4 draw.

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United have just had their worst result of the season and yet still they lead by four points with 13 matches to play. Even if they lose tonight, they cannot be overtaken this weekend and they would be confident of rebuilding the comfort zone between themselves and the chasers over the coming weeks.

A plus for United is they lead the mini-league based on head-to-head results between the top five teams, which is so often an indicator of which team will finish as champions. They have played only four games in that category and accumulated eight points, whereas Arsenal have seven points from six games and City six points from five matches.

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Significantly, when weighing up the match, United have won both home games in that category, 1-0 against Arsenal and 2-0 against Tottenham. They also have a perfect home record from their other games against top-half teams, which gives them a clear favourite's chance tonight.

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