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Risks and reward

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SCMP Reporter

Following the tragic earthquake and tsunami in Japan, attention has fallen not only on how the country is coping with the aftermath. There has also been an urgent response to the danger that the Fukushima No 1 nuclear plant, some 240 kilometres north of Tokyo, might go critical.

An official at the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency was quoted as saying there was a high possibility of a partial meltdown. Just going by the numbers of people affected so far by exposure to radiation and mass evacuations, it is already perhaps the worst nuclear incident in Japan to date.

The Japanese are taking all possible emergency measures to cool the radioactive core, including pumping in seawater. Whether the worst is eventually avoided, questions are being asked about the future for nuclear power, not just for Japan itself - but, even more so, for its Asian neighbours contemplating the nuclear route.

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A rising Asia needs energy, and faces uncertainties of fuel oil supply especially in the wake of events in the Middle East. Countries have set plans for nuclear power to ensure their energy security. This is notwithstanding many experts' argument that energy efficiency should be the first and more cost-effective effort, and the calls to explore the potential of renewable sources such as geothermal energy.

China is speeding up construction plans for nuclear power plants, especially in its southern provinces including Guangdong. Across Southeast Asia, Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand are moving towards nuclear power while Malaysia and Singapore are open to the possibility. None have experience in nuclear power generation on this scale.

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China has 13 working reactors delivering some 11 gigawatts; it has not had a major nuclear disaster so far. But its plants occasionally leak, such as during the incident last year at Shenzhen's Daya Bay plant. Looking ahead, China's plans are to expand its production of nuclear-generated power to at least 40GW by 2015 and 70GW by 2020 - enough to power Spain. And with the country's growing hunger for energy, the goal might even increase exponentially to 400GW by 2050.

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