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Forcing the issue

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Often, it seems, Taiwan's fate is decided by the outside world, primarily Washington and Beijing, while the island itself has little or no say. Recently, more voices in the United States have been raised to the effect that Taiwan needs to be sacrificed for the sake of better relations with mainland China, which is rising steadily to superpower status.

Charles Glaser, a political scientist at George Washington University, suggests in the latest issue of Foreign Affairs magazine that China's rise may not lead to conflict if the US were to make some 'territorial concessions', such as turning Taiwan over to Beijing - as if the 23 million people on the island do not matter.

And Glaser's is by no means the only such voice. Even US Defence Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged in January that the US commitment to Taiwan could be re-examined if 'the security environment for Taiwan changed'. Such remarks worry Taiwan, where there is little interest in unification.

Under the Taiwan Relations Act, Washington is required to provide Taiwan with arms to prevent its forcible takeover by Beijing. True, in 1982, the US pledged to gradually reduce weapons sales to Taiwan. But president Ronald Reagan also gave Taiwan 'six assurances' that the American commitment continued.

As China's international stature grows, it is making the US pay a higher price for selling arms. Last year, for the first time, Beijing threatened to punish American companies that manufacture equipment sold to Taiwan. Concern that the US may not be willing to offend a rising China is spreading, within both Taiwan's ruling Kuomintang and opposition Democratic Progressive Partyas well as the international business community.

The US-Taiwan Business Council issued a statement on March 1 in which it asked: 'Is America meeting its obligations under the Taiwan Relations Act to provide Taiwan with the military resources it needs?' 'The answer,' it said, 'is no.'

Though President Ma Ying-jeou has eased cross-strait tension and improved economic relations, he also wants to upgrade Taiwan's defences in an attempt to slightly redress the balance, which has long shifted in the mainland's favour, and has asked repeatedly for advanced F16 fighter jets. But the US is reluctant to sell for fear of provoking Beijing.

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