Collaboration with airports in delta region the way to go
Despite the huge public relations campaign befitting a project estimated to cost a hefty HK$136 billion, by far the largest in Hong Kong's history, my minority view is that building a third runway is neither urgent, nor necessary.
If official projections are correct, our current airport facilities will reach full capacity in 2020. According to the official story, it will be at least a decade before the new runway can be ready for use. The conclusion officials would like us to reach is that we have to decide now. Given the political climate, this is impossible. So, the best way forward is to expand capacity as soon as possible.
Upgrading the present infrastructure would cost less than half the price of the new runway and is therefore more cost-effective. It can fill the demand gap for now, and at the same time give us room to explore the ultimate solution: co-operating with other airports in the vicinity without unnecessary duplication and competition.
Commercial airports also operate in Macau, Zhuhai and Shenzhen; all vying for the same pie. Shenzhen is already set to add two runways this year to its existing one. So if we do decide to build our additional runway, the end result will be too much capacity and over-competition.
With the Hong Kong-Macau-Zhuhai bridge likely to be completed in the latter half of this decade, and Zhuhai airport under Hong Kong management, it makes economic sense to consolidate and rationalise both airports' facilities for optimal use. With this trump card in our hand, we can then negotiate with Shenzhen to include its airport under the big umbrella, as this would be the most efficient arrangement, and a win-win solution for all.
This is all the more so if, like me, you are sceptical about the optimistic official traffic projections. Advances in modern communications technology have already made a lot of commercial travelling unnecessary. Much more can be achieved, quicker and cheaper, through basically free internet video conferencing and file-sharing.
For those who do need to travel, high-speed railways will probably be the preferred choice, especially for the busier short- and medium-haul traffic. The demand trend for air travel is not relentlessly up; instead, it is likely to flatten or even drop.