• Tue
  • Sep 23, 2014
  • Updated: 10:39am

Lai See

PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 03 August, 2011, 12:00am
UPDATED : Wednesday, 03 August, 2011, 12:00am

Curious contradiction between the model and the reality

A recent report by the think tank Civic Exchange, 'Roadside Air Pollution in Hong Kong: Why is it still so bad?', draws attention to the curious contradiction in the government's figures on polluting emissions. The Environment Bureau's public consultation document - 'Air Quality Objectives Review' - trumpets the success of what the bureau likes to call the 'series of stringent measures' it has put in place since 1990 to reduce emissions from various sources, such as power stations and vehicles.

By 2007, it said, these measures had led to a decline by roughly half in the pollutants sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, respiratory suspended particulates, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. These figures are derived by modelling, rather than by actual measurement.

That is, the government creates a model, based on the theoretical performance of these sources. However the bureau's report also contains another set of data, showing the concentrations of the same pollutants as either flat or increasing. This data is based on empirical monitoring of the air.

The bureau notes this contradiction somewhat obliquely, in terms that could have come straight out of the British television programme Yes Minister's guide to bureaucratic language: 'It is apparent that the extent of the air quality improvement is not commensurate with the extent of emission reduction achieved over the past two decades ...'

Firstly, one has to wonder why the bureau chose to play up the data derived from its model, rather than the data measuring the actual state of the air.

Secondly, Civic Exchange's paper, by Dr Michael Edesess, a visiting fellow at the Hong Kong Advanced Institute for Cross-Disciplinary Studies, argues that the government's model is flawed, in that it depends on the different sources performing at optimal level. In theory, a bus with a Euro V-standard engine produces six times less polluting emissions than a bus with a Euro I-standard engine. But if the Euro V bus is poorly maintained, then its emissions can be up to 20 times greater then its theoretical design. Edesess says that the difference in emissions between well and poorly maintained vehicles can be enormous. He notes that studies in the US city of Denver showed that 'since 1999, one automobile in 20 emits more than the other 19 combined'.

He says the bureau's model does not take account of poorly maintained vehicles. Edesess concludes that there needs to be more stringent inspection of vehicles and penalties for poorly maintained vehicles.

However, as a number of groups have been saying for some time, the government needs to introduce a more attractive scheme of accelerated depreciation and give subsidies to bus companies and truck owners to scrap their old vehicles. This is money that would be well-spent, but it's not a programme the government shows any sign of taking any interest in, despite paying lip service to its concern for public health.

Boss has Hunter in his sights

There was some levity at the Cheung Kong Infrastructure (CKI) press conference to discuss the group's purchase of Britain's Northumbrian Water for a cool GBP2.14 billion. (HK$30.76 billion). Deputy managing director Andrew Hunter apparently played a key role in fixing up the deal, leading to some teasing from group managing director Kam Hing-lam, who referred to him as CKI Hunter, ie the man who hunts the deals for CKI - get it? Better to be the hunter than hunted.

Can a McDonald's a day be healthy?

The McDonaldising of China continues apace, with McDonald's Asia president Peter Rodwell saying the company is opening a new branch in China every other day. However, over the next three or four years, The Independent reports, Rodwell says the company will be opening a branch every day. Good news for McDonalds and its shareholders. The company, no doubt, believes it is extending the joys of fast food to millions of consumers. One wonders how long before consumer advocates question the nutritional value of its McOfferings, as in the West.

Gulliver spreads chronic confusion

No one at HSBC's analysts meeting on Monday - to chew over the bank's half-year results - was left in any doubt as to chief executive Stuart Gulliver's view of the euro-zone sovereign debt crisis. Just in case anyone missed what he said about the Greek bailout, he repeated it several times. The deal, he said, saw the crisis move from 'acute to chronic' status. Someone eventually asked him whether or not he was saying this was an improvement.

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