All eyes on the new guard
The Central Military Commission of the People's Liberation Army is due for a large-scale restructuring after the Communist Party's 18th National Congress in autumn next year. Apart from its civilian chairman, Hu Jintao, and vice-chairman Xi Jinping, up to seven of the current 12 members of the top military decision-making body will have reached retirement age by then.
Those scheduled to step down are the vice-chairmen General Guo Boxiong, 69, and General Xu Caihou, 68; Defence Minister General Liang Guanglie, 71, chief of the general staff General Chen Bingde, 70, director of the general political department General Li Jinai, 69, director of the general logistics department Liao Xilong, 71, and commander of the Second Artillery Corps General Jing Zhiyuan, 67.
Next year's reshuffle of the commission, the PLA's most senior organ, is regarded as significant. Its new members are likely to be young enough to serve two terms, or 10 years, until 2022.
It will be no surprise, therefore, if director of the general armaments department General Chang Wanquan, 62, and Air Force commander General Xu Qilang, 61, will not only retain their CMC memberships, but be promoted to vice-chairmen.
Chang is considered a protege of Guo, who was said to be the leader of the so-called 'northwestern army'. Like Guo, Chang served for years in the important Lanzhou military region, which includes the restive Xinjiang autonomous region as well as Gansu and Qinghai provinces, before being transferred to be chief of staff of the Beijing military region in late 2003.
With the help of Guo, who is regarded as a close ally of former president Jiang Zemin, Chang beat former deputy chief of general staff General Ge Zhenfeng in late 2007 to take his post at the commission, a move that will almost certainly ensure that he is its next vice-chairman - and, therefore, the PLA's top military officer - following the party's national congress next year.
The commission has a flexible line-up with up to four military vice-chairmen to strike a representative balance among the different branches of the PLA, which include the army, navy, air force and the Second Artillery Corps (strategic missile forces). Next year, Navy commander Admiral Wu Shengli, 66, who is said to be a protege of Hu's, will probably be promoted to third military vice-chairman and, hence, keep his seat in the top military body for one term of five years.