Bank on Compact Yarn on tough night
Consistent Happy Valley performer Compact Yarn can help punters buck the early season trend of unpredictable results and unlock a Triple Trio expected to reach a dividend of HK$3,000,000 on Wednesday night at the inner city circuit.
Cracking the TT has been tough - long-shot winners throwing a spanner in the works of punters chasing that dream prize - and tomorrow night looks just as daunting, with a wide-open final leg likely to provide a massive payday.
At least Rick Yiu Poon-fai's Compact Yarn should provide some predictability and act as banker in the middle leg over 1,650m.
The five-year-old has an average record of two wins and five placings, but he saves his best for this track. All three of his wins have been over the extended valley mile. Four starts from the 1,650m starting point have produced a win and three seconds. A solid barrier trial where he worked home well behind Maelstrom adds confidence.
Redoute's Fortune should also be prominent; Jeff Lloyd can give the five-year-old the right run from gate five. He's an adaptable, honest type and another who saves his best for this track and distance. Nordic Star will have supporters after a run-on fifth last Wednesday. He goes in with a couple of horses to benefit from an expected slow tempo, while inconsistent Golden Boy has won four Class Fives with on-pace performances and Billion is another who might try his luck going forward with 10 pounds off his back for apprentice Alvin Ng Ka-chun.
In the opening leg over 1,000m, Touch Go is a candidate for a banker. He hasn't been far away when similarly placed by Francis Lui Kin-wai in this grade and should be forward after plenty of work and a trial. It's his first time at the city circuit, but at his only previous 1,000m run he was beaten 13/4 lengths fifth in a Class One at his second start.
Caspar Fownes' Perfect Cheers can be included on the strength of his unbeaten Australian form. Racing as A Beta Imagination, he produced a stunning last-to-first effort at his second start at Caulfield.
He is drawn well for Olivier Doleuze to put him in a nice spot. The only concern is his racing pattern, he can't get as far back as he did at Caulfield and expect to catch the leaders.
If Vincent Ho Chak-yiu can find the rails on Ever Beauty from gate six, he will find himself vying for a top-three finish. All three of his wins have been over this track and trip, two of them in this grade from near his current mark of 72. A sizzling track gallop last Wednesday adds confidence.
Throw in Oscar Wonder at odds, while Solar Up (Eddie Lai Wai-ming) can benefit greatly from an inside draw (three), and use the market as a guide on Moneymaker, a first starter from the John Size yard.
The final leg is over 1,200m and is a real lottery, with a mix of inexperienced and inconsistent gallopers. Back to 1,200m and with blinkers back on, Snitzel Kid has some claims. Two runs over 1,400m had found him wanting, but a fresh performance wouldn't surprise.
An off-season improver, Owain goes in. The Andreas Shultz-trained three-year-old had three fruitless runs last preparation, but is drawn to get the right run from gate four under in-form Derek Leung Ka-chun.
A strong trial 18 days ago from Caga Spirit could indicate a cheeky first-up run, while Diamond Rainbow, Brilliant One and last-start winner Beautiful Dreamer can also be included.
The amount (in HK$) Compact Yarn has earned for his connections