The People's Liberation Army (PLA) will likely play a larger role in domestic politics, foreign and security policy after next year's political reshuffle, an expert in mainland politics said yesterday.
President Hu Jintao is likely to stay on as the country's military chief when he hands over the position of party secretary to his heir apparent, Vice-President Xi Jinping, at the 18th party congress, Dr Bo Zhiyue, a senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore's East Asian Institute, said in a talk at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
'The military will play a more important role than before,' Bo said. 'Hu Jintao has more seniority, more power and a better network than Xi Jinping. In the future, we'll see a stronger role played by the PLA ... maybe the balance of power will be more tipped towards the PLA instead of civilian positions.'
When Hu became party leader in 2002, he already had a solid military base, having been Central Military Commission vice-chairman for three years. But Xi was in a weaker position because he only became commission vice-chairman in 2010 - just two years before his expected ascension to the party leadership, Bo said.
While Hu became a member of the all-powerful Politburo Standing Committee 10 years before he became party chief, Xi entered relatively late in 2007, just five years before becoming party chief, he said.
The new leadership was unlikely to depart from current policy directions, partly due to Hu's continued dominance in military affairs and his plan to promote his protege, Inner Mongolia party chief Hu Chunhua, Bo said.