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Opportunities in troubled times

David Bonderman is a legend in the world of private equity, where he is well known for his risk-taking style and for doing mega deals, often against the headwinds of financial turbulence. It's an approach that has helped him transform his buyout firm TPG Capital (formerly Texas Pacific Group) into one of the world's largest.

So it was fitting that when he flew into Hong Kong recently, he headed straight into the hurricane-force winds from Typhoon Nesat. It was the first typhoon to hit Hong Kong this year and it shut down much of the city - with financial markets, schools and port services suspended and several dozen flights delayed or diverted.

His private jet circled in the air and attempted to land twice before it succeeded. But when he sauntered into an Island Shangri-La suite for an interview with the South China Morning Post, he showed no signs of being a harried passenger after a bumpy ride in the middle of a typhoon.

Bonderman, who seldom wastes time on small talk and rarely gives interviews, made no mention of the typhoon or the rocky ride. Instead, he went straight to talking about the strong winds battering the world economy. He also talked about his long-term bullish views on Asia - China in particular - and the looming competition from home-grown private equity firms.

'Well, I think, the biggest concern for our business and other investment businesses is the current state of the global economy, and the resulting volatility in various markets,' he said. 'I think it is time for caution.'

Indeed, according to data compiled by Bloomberg at the end of last month, private equity transactions surged 51 per cent to US$287 billion this year from a year ago. But growing economic uncertainties and volatile equity and debt markets have slowed recent deal-making. Announced transactions last month fell to US$8.2 billion from US$29 billion in August.

But as Bonderman quickly noted, the private equity industry as a whole has historically outperformed the markets in difficult times because company valuations get more reasonable.

'While it is time for caution, it is also a time that there should be increased opportunities, assuming this instability continues,' he said.

Despite mounting uncertainties, Bonderman said Asia would remain the place for private equity deals over the coming decades. 'We always hold the view that we are coming on to the Asian century and Asia is getting increasingly important, led by China, but not exclusively China,' he said. 'We have certainly moved our focus to include a bigger percentage of the Asian markets. Frankly, others are doing the same.'

Bonderman was keen to point out that TPG was among the first to tap the potential of emerging markets. Soon after he and James Coulter co-founded TPG in 1992, it opened an office in Shanghai, followed by another in Sao Paulo. 'We have been participants in the emerging markets from the very start,' he said.

TPG now has US$48 billion in assets under management. He said that with the mainland moving towards being more consumption-oriented, and away from its heavy reliance on exports, TPG had been ramping up investments on the mainland, targeting the banking, retail, and health care sectors. Indeed, some of TPG's investments on the mainland - Asia's largest private equity market over the past three years - have paid off very handsomely.

One of its most profitable Asian investments is the Shenzhen Development Bank, in which it bought a stake for about US$145 million in December 2004. TPG sold its stake in the mainland lender to Ping An Insurance, the mainland's second-largest insurer, in 2009 and will get back about eight times its original investment when it sells all the Ping An shares it received in the deal.

TPG's other notable investments include Lenovo, the mainland's largest computer maker, China Grand Automotive Services, a major mainland car dealer, and Wumart Stores, a leading food retailer. Over the past year, TPG also bought stakes in China International Capital Corporation, the mainland's first joint venture investment bank, and Comtec Solar Systems, TPG's first mainland-based solar investment.

As the debt crises in Europe and the US continue to reverberate, concerns over China's future economic growth are also mounting, demonstrated by the heavy sell-off in mainland and Hong Kong equity markets in the past few weeks. Some have predicted a hard landing for the Chinese economy, citing the mainland's high inflation and property bubble in particular. Bonderman, a frequent traveller to the mainland, is dismissive of that view.

'I don't believe that China's economy is heading for a crash,' he said. 'I think it is heading for a bit of downturn, as it is not immune from what is happening in the rest of the world. Growth will slow and inflation - particularly wage inflation - is a problem, more so than [in] other places.'

Bonderman said he was very optimistic about China over the next two decades, as be believed it would overtake the US as the world's largest economy.

'China has its problems, but it will keep growing,' he said.

Besides China, Southeast Asia was another significant area of investment for TPG, he said, singling out Indonesia for its rich natural resources. Bonderman is less optimistic about areas outside Asia, though.

'The US is probably going to have weak growth, but probably not a recession,' he said. 'Europe is going to have no growth and maybe a recession. The world is overleveraged and people are paying down the leverage, which makes consumption growth difficult. When consumption declines, it is hard to have fast growth.'

He had, in particular, harsh words for the future of Europe, echoing recent comments by former British prime minister Gordon Brown. Europe, with the exception of Germany, had become the world's high-cost production region for almost everything, Brown said.

'Its labour market is not fluid,' Bonderman said. 'It is difficult to hire and fire. It is difficult to grow things. Social costs are very high, which helps maintain the current standard of living, but also makes Europe unproductive every other way. As a result, Europe is going to suffer. The future of Europe is that it is a fine place to live, food is great but investment is tough.'

As for the future of the private equity industry, Bonderman believes private equity firms will continue to evolve - some are getting larger in terms of assets under management, and even going public through stock market listings. 'Asset management companies like Blackrock have trillions of dollars under management. The biggest private equity firms have US$50 to US$100 billion under management. Certainly, they should be bigger,' he said.

However, Bonderman noted a trend that will change the private equity landscape dramatically in the coming years - the emergence of hundreds of home-grown private equity firms in China. 'When we started, there was no PE [private equity] firm in China,' he said. 'The landscape has got a lot more crowded. But the market has also expanded rather dramatically.' Indeed, two of TPG's former top managers in Hong Kong - Shan Weijian and Mary Ma - have left in the past year and started their own firms.

While Bonderman said some of those firms have become serious rivals in China, he warned that only a few would thrive and become big international players. 'The question is if they have capability to expand beyond [the mainland market],' Bonderman said. 'We are going through a bit of a land rush here, which is to say that lots of people have started firms, but there will be a shake-out over time. It happened in the West. Most of the [Chinese] firms will not be there over the next decade or so.'

$1.17b

TPG Capital's investment, in Hong Kong dollars, in Comtec Solar Systems, its first in a Chinese player in the solar power industry

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