Libyans can learn lessons from 1911
This year marks the 100th anniversary of the start of the Xinhai revolution in China, which overthrew the country's last imperial dynasty, the Qing, and eventually led to the founding of the Republic of China in 1912. The anniversary is of great historical, cultural and political significance to all Chinese on both sides of the strait.
The 1911 revolution is often portrayed as an age of modernism, democratic and liberal ideas that triumphed over dictatorship, conservatism and decay. However 1911 also marks the beginning of 60 plus years of chaos in China, that created a political and social vacuum that proved to be a shoe too big to fill by the weak and divided Sun Yat-sen-led republic government.
This marked the beginning of the age of warlords that created a weak and divided China that allowed numerous foreign interventions that did not end until the establishment of the People's Republic and a prosperous China did not arrive until in the beginning of the 21st century.
Like China 100 years year ago, the people of Libya embarked on a heroic push to topple a dictator and overcome conservatism and an age of decay. Muammar Gaddafi is finally dead but the brave new world that Libyans long for may be a world away. The main thing the groups in the revolutionary alliance had in common was a desire to topple Gaddafi. Libya is still essentially a feudal society, divided by ethnic and tribal loyalties.
Without a strong leader who can suppress these divisions, the country may descend into an age of chaos with tribes trying to outmanoeuvre each other in an effort to be the new top dog.
Having invested in the downfall of Gaddafi, Britain, France and Italy are all looking for payback, so an independent Libya free from foreign intervention does not look too promising.