Bankers predict bleak profits for year ahead
Hong Kong bankers are increasingly downbeat about prospects for next year, with a poll by Deloitte China showing that more than three-quarters of respondents expect earnings to fall.
According to a survey of more than 200 people in the banking sector 'or familiar with the industry', almost 78 per cent of respondents expect net profit to drop in the 12 months from the end of September this year, and more than 33 per cent expect a 6 to 10 per cent reduction.
However, people did not think the downturn would be as severe as in 2003, when severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars) hit the city's economy and more than 1,200 companies were wound up.
The survey, which was supported by CPA Australia, was carried out in August and September.
It showed pessimism among respondents over the global economy, with 85 per cent of respondents expecting America's economy to remain the same or weaken in the next 12 months, and 68 per cent expecting Portugal, Italy, Iceland, Greece and Spain to worsen.
For Hong Kong, 47 per cent of respondents expected the Hang Seng Index to close above 20,000 by the end of February, and 44 per cent thought the Hong Kong index would close below 20,000. The remaining 9 per cent believed it would close either above 25,000 or below 15,000.
'It shows that people cannot see clearly,' said Patrick Yeung, a CPA representative, referring to the almost even split.
Nearly 60 per cent of respondents said Hong Kong home prices would likely drop next year. 'Under the current environment, respondents cited the appreciation of yuan, the depreciation of the US dollar and the tightening of credit terms from banks and lenders as the top three challenges for Hong Kong companies,' said Derek Lai, Asia leader of restructuring services at Deloitte China.
A separate report from Moody's Analytics, a unit of Moody's Investors Service, also signalled clouds on the horizon for the city. Alastair Chan, an economist at Moody's Analytics, said Hong Kong's near-term outlook was overshadowed by the weak global economy. The city's role as a key part of southeast China's manufacturing chain was diminishing, Chan said. 'Cheap manufacturing bases next door in Guangdong's Pearl River Delta ship clothes, toys and other goods through Hong Kong to the rest of the world, though there is a steady shift to directly shipping to final destinations,' a research note said.
Chan expected the city's economy to grow 4.3 per cent next year after a 5.3 per cent expansion this year.
