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Two-way strait

Beijing no doubt heaved a sigh of relief that Ma Ying-jeou was re-elected president of Taiwan, meaning they will not have to deal with a pro-independence leader for the next four years.

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council issued a low-key statement saying Ma's re-election showed that the peaceful development of cross-strait relations is supported by the majority of Taiwanese.

The People's Daily said in an editorial: 'Ma Ying-jeou's victory was the choice made by Taiwan's people. This result shows that seeking peace, growth and stability is the mainstream thought in Taiwan. It will further enhance cross-strait relations and benefit people on both sides. It's the common wish for all people in Taiwan.'

This, of course, is an endorsement of Taiwan's democracy, and will make it difficult for Beijing to respond negatively to its own citizens' desire for democracy on the mainland.

One scholar, Wang Weinan of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, believed the Chinese people would demand reform and the authorities would be 'shocked' into implementing changes.

That may be overly optimistic. But, undoubtedly, interest in democracy on the mainland has been boosted by the Taiwan election. Mainlanders could follow the campaign, including by watching debates between the candidates.

Postings on the Chinese internet reflect the depth of interest in Taiwan, and in how the island differs from the mainland. One microblogger wrote: 'I believe Zhongnanhai and officials at every provincial level are as tense as everyone else and are thinking what kind of impact Taiwan's election without gunshots will have on the mainland.'

Another posting said that, in Taiwan, Ma and his whole family were in the public eye as they campaigned while, on the mainland, 'any information about the family members of Mr Hu [Jintao] is a state secret. On the other side we know who is the wife when he is running as a candidate; on this side, when they are being sentenced, we find out who his mistresses are'.

Ma himself has said Taiwan's democracy will have an impact on the mainland.

In his first term, 16 cross-strait agreements were signed, including an important trade pact, and today there are hundreds of scheduled flights a week between the two sides while previously there were only occasional charter flights on special holidays.

The closer relationship led Ma's critics to charge - and Beijing to hope - that such steps would lead to unification.

Now, there will be four more years of closer relations. But while Taiwan is attracted by the mainland's economy, clearly there are people on the mainland who find Taiwan's lifestyle and its social and political system attractive.

The closer they get, the better people on each side will understand the other's systems. It then becomes a contest of ideas: which is more attractive, democracy or autocracy? Beijing now wishes for closer ties with Taiwan. When its wish comes true, it may discover that the dream is really a nightmare.

Frank Ching is a Hong Kong-based writer and commentator. [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter: @FrankChing1
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