Doubts cast on a Tang mandate
Henry Tang Ying-yen will face huge difficulties in governing Hong Kong even if he overcomes his flagging popularity to win the chief executive election race, according to one mainland academic familiar with Hong Kong affairs.
The academic said the ability to govern the city effectively was top of the central government's priorities in terms of who it would prefer to be the next chief executive.
The expert, who has knowledge of the central government's line of thinking on Hong Kong affairs, said Beijing would not brush aside the preference of Hong Kong people.
The academic, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Beijing would not insist on picking a candidate favoured by big business if that candidate's popularity consistently lagged below that of his rivals.
Tang (pictured) has long been behind his main rival, Leung Chun-ying, in public opinion polls. However, Leung received fewer nominations than Tang from members of the 1,200-strong election committee that will select the next chief executive on March 25. The committee includes many business leaders.
'When it comes to the choice of the next chief executive, the central government will not only consider the interests of big businesses. It will also take into account the views of the majority of Hong Kong people,' the expert said, adding that either Leung and Tang remained acceptable to Beijing.
Leung has enjoyed a lead of about 30 percentage points over the former chief secretary in opinion polls in the past three months. The gap further widened following the revelation of an illegal basement at a home owned by Tang's wife in Kowloon Tong.
'If the gap in the popularity rating between Tang and Leung has been consistently more than 15 percentage points, members of the Election Committee have to seriously consider whether their choice can deviate from that preferred by the majority of Hong Kong people,' the expert said.
Tang's supporters have argued that he, long considered the front runner, still has an edge over Leung as Beijing attaches great importance to the preference of influential tycoons. Many of Tang's biggest backers are in this category.
However, the mainland expert warned Tang could face huge difficulties if he was elected despite his low popularity: 'The problem would be exacerbated by people taking to streets in protest of his election and governance.'
The expert did not expect Leung, who has yet to win the support of many tycoons in Hong Kong, to face such a crisis if elected.
'The relationship between the Hong Kong government and the business community should not be significantly affected by who takes up the post of chief executive,' the expert said. 'Some tycoons may have cared too much about their personal ties with individual candidates.'
Another mainland academic who has been monitoring developments, also expressed similar concerns about Tang's ability to govern effectively should he be selected in the March 25 poll.
