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SHKP leaves market guessing on Plan B

Sun Hung Kai Properties (SHKP) says it's 'business as usual' at one of the world's largest real estate firms, following the arrest of its co-chairmen on suspicion of corruption.

But global investors and industry analysts - who are baying for a Plan B on the firm's future management - say it is anything but that.

Thomas Kwok Ping-kwong and Raymond Kwok Ping-luen tried to calm investors at a hastily called media briefing on April 3, five days after the billionaire brothers who run SHKP and Rafael Hui Si-yan, the city's former chief secretary, were arrested by the Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC).

Reading from prepared statements and entertaining no questions, the Kwoks declared their innocence and assured the firm's stakeholders that there would be no disruption to its operations.

Today, the trio, who are out on bail and yet to be charged with any offence, will report to the ICAC offices to answer more questions about the investigation.

'This is a time of great strain, intense pressure and there's a lot at stake. It's definitely not 'business as usual',' said Ray Rudowski, regional director of crisis planning and training at public relations firm Edelman in Hong Kong.

'Trust and reputation are under a ttack, so it's critical to constantly communicate with stakeholders who are confused and scared.'

A few days after the arrests, SHKP hosted a teleconference with analysts from major investment banks, including Credit Suisse and Barclays Capital. The analysts - some of whom have recommended the stock to their global clients, projecting it to top HK$140 in the future - repeatedly asked what the succession plan is should the Kwok brothers become unable to run the firm on a day-to-day basis.

According to participants on the call, the reply from the firm's investor relations officers was terse: 'There is a plan.'

But with no details forthcoming, the analysts were left guessing. Since news of the arrests broke, SHKP shares have tumbled 14 per cent to HK$95.95 each as trade ended last Thursday the holiday break.

A SHKP spokesman said the firm has yet to hire an external crisis manager and declined further comment.

'If the brothers have a former executive or current executive, they can nominate him to replace them in running the company' on an interim basis and stay in the background, said Randel Carlock, a professor at the Insead business school who studies family-owned businesses.

'[In the] long term they need a [strong and independent] board of directors to manage the strategic planning process' and help protect SHKP from the fallout, Carlock said. 'The ideal board size is seven to nine [members] and the majority should be independent.' Currently, there are 17 seats on SHKP's board, with four of them independent.

A person close to the Kwok family firmly believes the two Kwok brothers will continue to run the firm. But if circumstances force a Plan B, the person believes the board could tap a retired former executive director, Michael Wong Yick-kam, 59, in a caretaker role.

Wong, a 28-year veteran of SHKP, retired in December 2009 to focus on philanthropic pursuits.

At the firm, he was responsible for strategic planning, corporate development, infrastructure projects, financial investments and investor relations. He still serves as a non-executive director, a principal adviser and a member of the board's audit committee. The person close to the Kwoks said Wong had lately been returning to the office for meetings with senior management more often than he did previously.

Wong could not be reached for comment.

'We know the company has no problem with its capital position and all the new projects are going on well in terms of sales and marketing, but these things are not what our clients are worried about,' said an analyst who joined SHKP's conference call.

'They are worrying if the company really has a Plan B and what it is' for the future management, the analyst said.

The lack of information has seen analysts downgrade the stock because of the uncertainty and scrambling to come up with their own scenarios. They include bringing in an independent outsider to take a top role, or the return of the eldest brother, Walter Kwok Ping-sheung, who was SHKP's chairman before his ousting following a family feud. He is not implicated in the ICAC probe.

People familiar with Walter Kwok's thinking say that while he is not eager to return, he has not ruled it out either if asked to do so by the SHKP board.

Investment bank UBS hired law firm Herbert Smith to brief some of its top clients on how the ICAC operates and how firms like SHKP could react in various scenarios affecting SHKP's top officers. Gavin Lewis, a Hong Kong-based partner at Herbert Smith who focuses on dispute resolution in Asia, told them the ICAC's investigation process often takes about 12 months, according to a participant at the UBS briefing. (It is unclear when exactly the ICAC's probe began, however.)

'That was a surprise to many of us. If the Kwok brothers were charged, they would be in a long battle for probably more than a year and that means we [institutional investors] would also be stuck for that long period of time on the case before you decide to sell the stock,' said a person who attended the UBS briefing.

Under the city's listing rules, in the absence of a conviction for corporate wrongdoing a person can remain a director of a public firm.

But in crisis management, 'you must respect the strength of public opinion', said Chris Leahy from strategic advisory firm Blackpeak Group.

Additional reporting by Toh Han Shih

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