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Jiang Zemin

Hu likely to go quietly from the scene

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Wang Xiangwei

As the overseas media focus on the explosive scandal from the ouster of disgraced politician Bo Xilai and the arrest of his wife in a murder probe, they seem to pay little attention to a new set of dynamics in mainland politics which may have big implications on the governing of the country for years to come. These concern the delicate relationship between those who will find themselves in charge after this year's leadership succession and their predecessors.

Although it is wrapped in total secrecy, the leadership succession has become more systematised since Deng Xiaoping ended the lifetime appointments of officials in the 1980s. And, more significantly, the upcoming change of power will be the first time that the new leadership is not pre-determined by a paramount leader. That era is gone following the death of Deng. It was he who anointed Jiang Zemin as the top man in the third generation of leaders and chose Hu Jintao for the fourth.

The fifth generation line-up, with Vice-President Xi Jinping set to replace Hu Jintao and Vice-Premier Li Keqiang coming in for Premier Wen Jiabao , is expected to be finalised only after intensive horse-trading among various factions in the run-up to the Communist Party's 18th Congress in Beijing in the autumn.

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While a more systematised succession has removed arguably the biggest uncertainty threatening the mainland's political stability, it also raises very interesting questions about the influence of the retired leaders over their successors.

Indeed, when Hu retires at the age of 70 in the autumn, he will become the second former top leader still extant following Jiang, who is now 86. That will create a unique situation in the party's history, one in which the new leaders will have to find ways to get along with two former heads of the party and of state, both of whom can exercise their considerable influence through their supporters within the government and the party. How they interact will not only influence the transition of power but also help to shape China's future policies.

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It has become an open secret in Beijing's corridors of power that Jiang, despite his full retirement in 2004, still has great influence over China's domestic and foreign policies. It is known among high-ranking officials that he is regularly consulted on major party and government policy initiatives.

And despite the fact that Hu and Xi are leading the efforts to finalise the line-up of the next leadership, Jiang is widely believed to have a powerful say over the choice of the candidates.

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