Beijing rethinks its HK policies
In politics, the presence or absence of a notable person can be significant - and perhaps even foretell the future.
This happened during chief-executive-designate Leung Chun-ying's recent visit to Beijing. Liao Hui, the long-time Hong Kong expert within the mainland's top leadership, was absent from Leung's meeting with Premier Wen Jiabao. This triggered speculation that this once-influential former director of the Hong Kong and Macau Affairs (HKMA) Office was shunted aside because of his support for defeated chief executive candidate Henry Tang Ying-yen.
A week later, former Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa, a Leung supporter and perhaps Beijing's most trusted expert on Sino-US relations, gave a speech on China's economic development to a group of American military cadets at West Point, the US Army's elite military academy.
The two incidents are not related, but they aroused interest because both Liao and Tung are closely connected with Hong Kong and both are second generation members of prominent families. Liao is the son of the late vice-chairman of the National People's Congress, Liao Chengzhi, and grandson of Liao Zhongkai, a close friend of Sun Yat-sen. Tung is the son of shipping tycoon Tung Chao-yung, also known as the Onassis of the Orient.
Now it seems that Liao, aged 70, may soon retire completely. His decade-long influence on Beijing's thinking and policymaking about Hong Kong is seen as fading away. Tung, who turns 75, is playing a more active role as China's special envoy on Sino-US relations, due to his and his family's strong ties in US political and economic circles.
Tung was seen accompanying Vice-President Xi Jinping, who is also in charge of Hong Kong affairs, during Xi's visit to the US in February, just when Hong Kong's election fight was at its most fierce. Tung's close relations with Xi raised speculation about who Beijing would support because Tung was widely believed to be one of Leung's key behind-the-scenes backers.
But Liao is still the deputy head of the HKMA working group under the party's Central Committee headed by Xi. Thus Xi and Liao both attended President Hu Jintao's meeting with Leung. Beijing's major decisions on Hong Kong are usually made by this working group as a whole, and executed by the HKMA Office and the central government's liaison office in Hong Kong.
Liao has been a close aide to Hu, Wen and Xi on Hong Kong matters. Liao strongly believed that the stability of Hong Kong relied on keeping the interests of the business community intact to best preserve the city's capitalist system. This rationale may be correct, but public perception soured as many perceived collusion between the government and business and as the wealth gap between rich and poor widened.
Beijing had to rethink its traditional business-oriented polices as these issues emerged in the bitter chief executive election. The fact that Leung was picked rather than the tycoon-backed Tang may reflect Beijing's reconsideration.
It's unclear who Xi's future trusted adviser on Hong Kong affairs will be.
Liao is reaching retirement age, and some analysts predict that this will spell the end of the era that emphasised the needs of the business community.
Tung will clearly remain influential, not in Hong Kong affairs but in Sino-US relations. His close relations with Xi go back to the 1990s when Xi was based in Fujian, the province closest to Taiwan. Xi was first a municipal head, then promoted to governor and then provincial party secretary. Tung frequently shared with Xi his experience in dealing with Hong Kong and Taiwanese investors.
Tung resigned as Hong Kong's chief executive in 2005 after the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak and a massive rally against the government's poor performance. Yet he is remembered as a person with principles, though his performance was controversial.
There seems no reason for Tung to throw himself back into the heated kitchen of Hong Kong politics when he has a more important role to play in the international arena. However, Tung does want Hong Kong to remain a first-class world city, not downgraded to just another city in China.
With Liao's retirement and Tung busy with Sino-US relations, gone are the days when Beijing's Hong Kong policymakers could be influenced by a single individual. The future leadership will look at the city's overall needs rather than certain specific Hong Kong experts in decision making - a situation that is likely to strengthen Leung's hand.
