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Asian equities are perfect picks

John Cremer

With Asian equities rising and fewer alarm bells ringing elsewhere, individual investors sitting on cash for the past couple of years are once again keen to put their money to work.

In rebalancing a portfolio, the first thought is often to increase the weighting of shares and mutual funds, on the general assumption that a rising tide should carry everything higher.

However, while most indices took a step forward in the first quarter, investment experts at private banks are quick to caution against any bull market stampede. Their broad view is that any move towards equities, in Asia and farther afield, should be very selective and carefully calibrated, reflecting longer-term objectives for amassing wealth, not just a 'quick win' trading mentality.

Yonghao Pu, regional chief investment officer for UBS Wealth Management, said: 'High-net-worth clients are looking to diversify away from cash for yield enhancement and to preserve their wealth. We see some opportunities in the equity space, but are not ready to increase aggressively. Overall, our recommendations for asset allocation remain neutral, with about 40 per cent in equities, and we might even reduce [some holdings] if markets rise 10 per cent.'

That said, Pu is closely watching key themes and poised to rebalance within his parameters when the time is right. At present, he sees markets in North Asia, particularly China, as cheaper than those in South Asia. This offers value, though the possibility of a hard landing and uncertain policy direction on the mainland could lead to some sort of consolidation in the next two to three months.

Elsewhere, Pu sees clients buying into Indonesia and Malaysia, especially if those countries are their home base. Confirming the tilt in global economic forces, more Asia-based investors are also taking an interest in India, even though buy-and-sell restrictions mean assets may have to be funnelled through designated funds.

'Clients in different countries always have their own ideas, knowledge, and historical connections,' Pu says. 'But as a general recommendation, we are also advising them to buy into US equities. The recovery there will support market valuations.'

With astute stock selection, guided by the bank, this also offers exposure to Asia's emerging market growth by an indirect route. A quick look at the annual reports of many global brands and luxury-goods firms shows their widening footprint in Asia and their faith in the region as a source of future profits.

Going via developed markets is another way for investors to engage in Asia, Pu says. 'It is a theme we offer clients, without the related risks and potential volatility of investing in Asian equities directly.'

For John Woods, Asia-Pacific chief investment strategist at Citi Private Bank, trade and gross domestic product figures from China will be the catalyst for any rebalancing of portfolios. Better-than-forecast numbers will trigger a collective sigh of relief, allowing the hope that global growth prospects are back on track and the worst fears about debt overhangs and systemic default can finally start to abate.

'If China is rebounding, it will represent an important reference point for the global economy and local assets,' Woods says. 'For us to be reasonably confident of recommending a larger proportion of equities, it is conditional on evidence that China has engineered a soft landing.'

Assuming positive news on that front, the watchword for investors is still 'buyer beware'. But, Woods says, real bargains are few and far between. Cyclical stocks in Asia have already had a dramatic run-up in valuations in the past three months. Markets have largely priced in the effects of China's bottoming out. And while there is always talk of Asia's smaller emerging markets, liquidity is restricted and the choices naturally limited.

In relative terms, sectors such as IT and industrials might outperform in the current environment, with telecoms, consumer staples and health care falling behind the curve. This, though, is simply reversing the patterns seen last year, as the bigger institutional investors rotate into sectors which seem cheap against moving averages.

'Overall, equity valuations in Asia are looking stretched,' Woods says. 'What I'm recommending to clients is that they focus on the more liquid, deeper markets - Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore - and remain underweight in China, which is the correct positioning until we know whether the country is having a soft or hard landing.'

While stressing the importance of holistic portfolio planning with due regard to each asset class, David Poh, regional head of asset allocation and discretionary portfolio management for Societe Generale Private Banking, still sees scope to improve returns from the portion put in equities.

Poh says investors rarely go wrong buying blue chips in a downturn - they will always rebound - and fundamentals cannot be ignored. So, with US indices now about 10 per cent off their 2007 peak, while unemployment sits stubbornly at more than double the rate of five years ago, he scents trouble.

'People say it's a good time to buy US equities, but I'm a bit cautious,' Poh says. 'Investment is not justifiable if you look at the fundamentals. A lot of liquidity [from quantitative easing] is fuelling the current market and one day the 'hot air balloon' will come down.'

Looking for value, Poh has turned his attention to equities linked to commodities. Oil companies, drillers, refiners, distributors and miners all fall into this category and can be found both in developed markets and across Asia. The energy play is one reason he likes Indonesia and Malaysia. Another is the huge potential attached to such countries' agricultural resources and their prospects for having a bigger role in an integrated global economy.

At present, though, even allowing for those advantages, the main problem Poh discerns is that stock prices have pushed ahead of underlying valuations.

'In my view, the equity market in Indonesia [and elsewhere] is very expensive,' he says. 'I'm a bit of a value investor, so it is hard to be very bullish. And to help protect clients' wealth, we advocated taking some profit on these assets at the beginning of March.'

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