Checking in for a travel boom
The number of mainland tourists heading abroad has roughly doubled in five years, despite what may be the slowest year of growth in over a decade
Soaring numbers of Chinese tourists packed onto flights out of the country is a sure sign that a fast-growing consumer class of about 130 million is not worried that the likely slowest year of economic growth since 1999 will sap their spending power.
Nearly 39 million mainlanders left China on overseas trips in the first half of this year, roughly double the number five years ago and evidence that a powerful consumer force - envisaged by the top leadership as the engine of economic expansion in a generation to come - may be bulking up faster than thought.
The question for investors is whether a burgeoning bourgeoisie is now big enough to fully offset the economic impact of faltering foreign demand evident in data last week, when undershoots in July new bank lending, export, import and industrial output growth prompted analysts to start slicing into gross domestic growth forecasts.
Paul French, Shanghai-based chief China strategist at market intelligence consultancy Mintel, said the purest view of the health of the domestic economy always came from the consumer.
"If consumers feel good about things, they'll spend. If they don't feel good, they'll stop," he said. "Travel is a good indicator because people are travelling more and they are consuming a lot when they travel abroad."
Investors, facing world growth slowing to levels that economists define as marking a global recession, are anxious for any sign that critical consumer mass may have arrived in China.