Monitor | The most execrable display of judicial ignorance since 1633
Given the imperfect tools available for the Italian seismologists in forecasting earthquakes, the L'Aquila verdict must be reversed on appeal
In the late afternoon of Tuesday on October 17, 1989, a magnitude-7 earthquake struck the San Francisco Bay area of California.
The damage was enormous. Thousands were injured and 63 died, most of them when a two-kilometre length of double-decked freeway overpass collapsed, killing 42.
Apart from the pancaked freeway, the earthquake is best remembered now for interrupting that day's World Series baseball game between the Oakland Athletics and the San Francisco Giants.
Less well-remembered is that among the other events San Francisco had to cancel was a conference of the world's leading seismologists on the science of earthquake prediction.
I know, I know, it sounds like a bad joke, with shades of the fortune-tellers' meeting that was postponed due to unforeseen circumstances. But there is a serious point here. In 1989, seismologists knew they couldn't accurately forecast earthquakes, and the science has barely advanced since.
The reason is simple enough. Earthquakes happen because stresses build up in the rocks of the earth's crust. Sooner or later, those stresses become insupportable and a fracture occurs, usually - but not always - along a pre-existing fault zone.