Lai See | Whatever happened to global warming for the past 16 years?

One of the "inconvenient truths" that is not getting much attention at the UN climate conference in Doha is that for the past 16 years there has been no discernible increase in global temperature. Data from Britain's Met Office Hadley Centre shows that global warming has fallen well short of the predictions in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in 1990 that the world would warm at a rate equivalent to 0.3 degrees Celsius or more than 0.6 degrees Celsius by now. It will be recalled that at the time this report was greeted with near hysteria. However, the reality has been that since 2000 the measured increase was 0.14 degrees Celsius and just 0.3 degrees Celsius in the 22 years since 1990, which is about half what the "consensus" had predicted. A consequence of this, you might think, is to question the models on which these forecasts were made. However, the response of the "consensus" has been that the new data confirms there has been "a pause" in global warming. Climate change and man's contribution have sharply divided the scientific community and despite the voluminous reports from IPCC, the science remains inconclusive as to the extent to which this is caused by man-made activities. If this hiatus in global warming continues for five more years or so, this could prove embarrassing for policymakers who have been setting aside billions of dollars to combat this pause in global warming.

We see that the stock price of Hong Kong-listed Silver Base continues to languish. The company distributes high-end baijiu - white liquor - on the mainland. Its share price has fallen from HK$3.37 at the beginning of November to HK$2.35 yesterday, a decline of 30 per cent. During this period, the "plasticiser" scandal erupted with high levels of the chemical found in various baijiu brands. But while initially alarming, nobody has knowingly fallen ill from drinking this stuff. People are not sure this scandal is the reason for Silver Base's decline. The more likely reason is the crackdown on corruption, on the cutting back on official entertainment, gift giving and so on, and as a consequence, a decline in baijiu consumption. How long this situation will last is anyone's guess, but the Silver Base share price may prove a useful indicator as to when "normal" practices resume.