MonitorRising economic stress behind protests in Brazil and Turkey
When times are good, people are happy to ignore politics, but, as the unrest in Sao Paulo and Istanbul attests, things can change dramatically
There is a school of thought that all popular political uprisings have economic causes.
So, for example, the Communist Party's 1949 victory in China's civil war was attributable not to the justice of its cause, nor even to superior military strategy, but rather to runaway inflation under the Nationalist government.
Similarly, the Arab Spring of 2011 was triggered by the twin blows of rising food prices and a growth slowdown caused by the euro-zone crisis.
Closer to home, Hong Kong's 500,000-strong demonstration of July 1, 2003, may on the face of it have been a protest against the government's proposed anti-sedition law. But behind the discontent stood 8 per cent unemployment, declining incomes, and a deflationary trend that had seen the value of home-owners' properties fall by two-thirds in just six years.
As with China, Tunisia and Hong Kong in past years, so with the popular protests in Brazil and Turkey today.
Both economies benefited enormously from the long period of low interest rates and plentiful liquidity that followed the dotcom bust of 2000. Both became favourites with rich investors.