What's good for the civil service is good for Hong Kong

Just over a year ago, the government appointed 11 non-official members to the Steering Committee on Population Policy. The idea was that the committee would "identify the main social, economic and policy challenges which require further study regarding changes to Hong Kong's population profile in the next 30 years. It will recommend strategies and practical measures for pursuing the objectives of Hong Kong's population policy, and advise on the priority of these measures."

The appointments came shortly after the Census and Statistics Department had revised down its population forecast for 2041 from 8.89 million to 8.47 million. This adjustment appears to have had little impact on the colleagues at the Transport Department.

Hong Kong's population in mid-2012 was officially 7.2 million, which is forecast by Census and Statistics to rise to 7.37 million by 2016.

Meanwhile, their colleagues at the Transport Department appear to be oblivious to these forecasts. In its latest update in August last year to the "Third Comprehensive Transport Study", which embraces the period 1997 to 2016, it apparently remains content with its three population scenarios for 2016: 8.2 million, 8.9 million and 10 million, all of which are significantly higher than those produced by the Census and Statistics Department.

According to the Census and Statistics estimates, 8.2 million will be achieved in 2031, while 8.9 million will not be reached until way past 2041. The 10 million scenario is pie in the sky.

Maybe it thinks nobody will notice. The last thing the department wants to contemplate is the prospect of having to downsize its vast concrete laying plans, since that would imply - horror of horrors - reducing the size of the department. "That would be unthinkable," as Yes Minister ' s Sir Humphrey Appleby might have said.