Jake's View | 'Experts' see the future as well as Madam Zodiac

"An ageing population will pose sustained challenges to public finances. The conclusions and recommendations of the Working Group have provided a scientific and objective basis for the community to better understand the issues, and consider rational and pragmatic options ahead … I hope the experts and scholars in the Working Group will continue to …"

Will continue to … blah, blah, blah, and if you ask why I am so dismissive of these people it is because I wonder whether they can really call themselves experts.

For expertise on what the year 2041 will hold I recommend seeing a fortune teller. Madam Zodiac, who reads crystal balls and tarot cards, may be as ignorant of the future as anyone else but at least she doesn't tell you that her predictions are scientific and objective.

How can they be? I'll hazard a guess at the time of day that the sun rises at the spring equinox in 2041 but when it comes down to what percentage of Hong Kong's labour force will be employed or seeking employment that year and how this will affect social assistance spending on the aged, well, hello there, Madam Zodiac.

All that anyone can really do otherwise is guess at some trends and extrapolate them into the future. I used to play that game when I was a child. It's called Pin the Tail on the Donkey.

But I suspect that the "experts" in this Working Group picked the wrong trends even then. I think they significantly underestimate the labour force participation rate. It is certainly what they have done in the past.